Published On: Thu, Jan 16th, 2020

A Public Opinion Survey Company says votes of Turkey’s ruling party are on the decline

A Public Opinion Survey Company says votes of Turkey’s ruling party are on the decline

The founder of a public opinion survey company has made a statement commenting that while the votes of the CHP, HDP and The Good Party are on the rise, the votes of ruling AK Party have been on the decline for a while. The official said “Erdogan has been elected president twice, normally he cannot run again” and added that the MHP Nationalist Movement Party) would not be able to pass the electoral threshold if an election were held today.

Based on the same report the official also said, “This is what numbers tell us; AK Party does not seem to have a chance of continuing its rule in Turkey, any more. If extraordinary conditions do not occur, the ruling party will not be in power after the first democratic election”.

Based on current law the current president cannot run again because he has been elected twice. The Constitution says very clearly that whoever has been elected president twice cannot run again.  An important point is that as it looks no candidate of any party alone would be able to win the first round.  There would be only one exception though and that would if a decision for early elections came out of Parliament”.

As for issues on Turkey’s agenda currently, the official shared following:

“Regarding Kanal Istanbul we say that the government will lay the foundation but we think that the life of the AK Party government will not be that long. This is how we look at the issue” .

“On the other hand regarding the next elections, the issue of how we go to the first election is very important. We don’t think there will be a first election with the current electoral system. What they would do is change the electoral system. They can return to the “narrow zone” system, because in the narrow zone you can win 60 percent of deputies, even though you get 35 percent and 40 percent of votes, depending on the YSK’s choice of constituencies. However, when we look at Turkey’s electoral system right now, we see another thing: Even if you reach 60 percent in parliament, (keeping the presidential system), you may win 40 percent or maybe 60 percent of deputies, but you may not be able to win the presidential election. We think that AK Party would consider quitting this presidential election system. Also, it seems clear that no party candidate can find 50 percent in the first round alone and depending on when the election will be held – 6 months later or a year later etc. – the results may be different”.

As for new parties to be established and the movement of votes, some of the votes may go from the MHP to the Good Party (IYI PARTI), but most will go to the new parties to be established. A big change in the situation of HDP (pro-Kurdish) does not seem very likely. However any votes to leave that party would go to new parties, too. Some are expected go to Davutoglu’s party and some to Babacan’s. Based on observations the total vote of the new parties was around 10 per cent a month ago and now it is seen as 10.7 based on, recent work. As for the strategy the new parties will follow, experts believe they would come (act) together, at the end of the day.

On the other hand based on some surveys it is observed that MHP, the partner of AK Party in the Republic Alliance might not be able to pass the election threshold if there were an election today. The Good Party’s vote seems to be up and the HDP’s vote is also on the rise. The CHP’s vote is rising because the popularity of its mayors seems to be continuing at the moment.

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