A realistic picture of the Middle East conflict and the position of Turkey
Political opinion leaders with an objective point of view on the Middle East picture at present think that superpowers (USA in the first place certainly) do not want the existence of powerful countries in the region and that is why they have always aimed to create internal conflicts that are mainly based on sectarian differences and that would eventually convert to long lasting sectorian clashes and even regional wars among countries in the area like is the case in Iran and Iraq, once.
As for Turkey, factors such as long time presence of Turkey in Bashiqa, discussions on the Mosul operation, and attempts of Turkish administration to improve its relations with the Kurdish Regional Administration rather than the Iraqi Government do not seem to have yielded any fruitful results for Erdoğan, putting Turkey in a picture with prospects of having no seats at the negotiation table. Regarding Turkey’s concerns, it is certainly equally important how Mosul is to be administered as how it is to be retaken, following removal of Islamic State forces from the city. Up to now however there seems to be no clear consensus agreed on as to how the city is to be governed after it is taken back from IS.
Turkey may not be able to secure a seat at the table unless the Turkish administration has solid and feasible plans to be put into effect. People speaking on behalf of the administration have been circulating remarks as to the government has some other alternative scenarios ready if need be which we believe are not feasible and compatible with actual conditions prevailing in the region at present. This is certainly not to ignore that we are a country located in the region and thus normally have legitimate reasons to have serious concerns and even fear about what is going on and what the final picture is destined to be in the area relating to Iraq’s fragmentation, possible immigration issues and announcement of a new Kurdish State in the south of Turkey.
As it looks now one could tell the Iraqi Government will have more weight in the administration of Mosul when the fight ends. However this said, we should not neglect the fact that in case Kurdish troops that have already taken many districts of Mosul, take the eastern part of Mosul as well, the city will actually be divided into two. In such situation the eastern part of the town will be under the control of the Kurdish Administration whereas the western part will be controlled by the Central Government or Sunni groups. In any case the Kurdish Administration seems to have profited most so far in terms of enlarging its territory.
The power struggle in the region, discussions revolving around Sunni-Shiite hostility originating from sectarian differences and ethnic division between Kurdish-Turkmen groups will be truly decisive as to which direction the conflict will be heading to. At this point we also need to mention that the future of Mosul is very closely related to the future of Iraq. Because the solution to be introduced in Mosul will have a very powerful say over the question if Iraq will manage to stay as one that is a unitary state.
As for the final picture not many people find it very likely for Turkey to come out of this hot spot conflict with good enough advantages as compared to its efforts to become part of the solution and the negotiation table. It seems to be a quite remote possibility the superpowers USA to be in the first place will allow Turkey to grab a big enough portion of bread at the table (for Mosul mainly) – that is if Turkey is at the table, by any chance. Thus if Turkey succeeds to secure its borders in a safe condition – not exposed to any further threats that is – when the war is over, that at least could be considered a gain, on realistic terms.
Iran on the other hand seems to have put much in the basket and it will certainly have a much bigger influence in the region in the future, the more so after it has mended broken diplomatic ties with the USA.
As for Russia needless to say, it has made a very old dream from hundreds of years ago come true… That is the dream of getting hold of a place in the Mediterranean to stay there constantly and making this territory a Russian lake eventually against the western world.