Article: The new period in Middle East… Peace starts with Syria (by Hüsnü Mahalli)
Down below you will read a very important article written by Mr. HUSNU MAHALLI, a prominent and veteran Journalist and one of the best authorities in the field of Middle East Politics. Mr. Mahalli is a dissident journalist, not in very good terms with the government in Turkey. But this does not change the fact that he has been an extraordinary source of information as to what has happened in the region all along the Syrian conflict and in fact a great majority of his observations and evaluations in this regard have come true, at the end of the day. In below article, the writer paints a most recent picture of the region and explains the game of balance among superpowers and countries involved such as Syria, Turkey and Iran, not to forget Iraq. The article was published in Turkish, on YURT daily website.
Original link in Turkish: http://www.yurtgazetesi.com.tr/bolgede-yeni-donem-baris-suriye-den-baslar-makale,13958.html
THE NEW PERIOD IN THE REGION… PEACE STARTS WITH SYRIA (by Hüsnü Mahalli)
When “Arab Spring” started in Tunisia and then in Egypt and I wrote it was going to be bloody, everyone was angry at me.
The rightists and the leftists believed this game played by the western world.
When the events jumped to Syria I wrote and explained that
1-Assad would never fall
2-Russia would never give up on Assad
3-Iran and Lebanon Hezbollah would stand by Assad until the very end
4-and Turkey was the target of all these games.
Even Marxist leftists accused me of “hostility to democracy”. Where we stand now eventually is obvious. The situation Turkey is in, explains everything.
There is no need for WH questions (who, whose, whom, why etc..)
It is important what happens from now on…
And I will summarize in this article what can be done within the triangle of Russia, Turkey and Iran.
Everyone talked about the visit of the Iranian Chief of General Staff to Ankara.
President Erdogan is supposed to go to Iran soon.
Putin and Erdogan are often on the phone to each other.
There is coordination and cooperation at all levels between the three countries under the Astana Agreement and particularly in intelligence and military fields.
That is against ISIL and NUSRA.
When Russian planes went to Syria on September 30th 2015, Assad controlled about twenty percent of the country. Today he controls more than 50 percent… Until the end of the year this rate will be 75-80 percent. By that time, ISIL (Islamic State) and NUSRA will be finished.
The Syrians fighting in both groups will leave their weapons. If they do not, they will be killed just like at the Syria-Lebanon border.
With the joint operations of Syrian and Lebanese armies as well as Hezbollah militants, the border has been completely cleaned from ISIL and NUSRA, in the last three weeks.
Syria-Jordan border is next in the line. Iran, Hezbollah-backed Syrian army and Russian forces are preparing for this. The Syria-Iraq-Iran and Russia Coordination established in 2015 and based in Baghdad, is working for this as well.
It should not be forgotten that the Iraqi army and hundreds of thousands of Hashdi Shaabi militias (the Shiite militias), have not yet cleared the whole of Iraq from ISIL.
This process might take 4-5 months, like in Syria but on one condition; with the cooperation of Turkey
Everything has been progressing in this direction since the rapprochement between Erdogan and Putin.
In January 2017, Deputy Prime Minister KURTULMUS said “Our policy in Syria has been wrong all the way from the beginning.”
Apparently Ankara is trying to correct its mistakes… with the help of Russia and Iran…
Sometimes, despite the US and sometimes together with it, even if indirectly.
The S-400 missiles are part of this game.
EU countries are also helping as well (although not formally, maybe)…
Everyone is establishing a dialogue with Damascus.
ISIL groups will eventually gather in the Syrian-Iraqi border region.
NUSRA is in IDLIB, 20 kilometers from the Turkish border.
There are at least 20 thousand of them and half are foreign nationals meaning Chechen, Uighur, Saudi Arabian and Tunisian…
This is the target for the Russia-Turkey-Iran cooperation.
So, what will happen to these foreign subjects?
Then, it will be the turn for PYD
In agreement with the USA, the Iran-Turkey-Russia Trio will take the majority of the regions under the control of the PYD and give it to the Syrian state… to Assad that is.
As long as Iran, Turkey and Assad do not approve, a federal or autonomous region cannot be established in Syria.
If the US gets involved, it will have to confront these three countries… and Russia as well.
I do not think Trump would do such madness. I would not be surprised either, if he did.
Anyway, everyone is playing the Kurdish card.
For example, the project of “opening a corridor to the Mediterranean” by the Syrian Kurds…
The strategists and experts who voice this issue are not aware of anything.
Leave alone a corridor, even a federal state or autonomous administration to be targeted by Kurds cannot be realized against the will of Assad, supported by Iran and Russia.
This is a relief for Turkey and might be convincing for it to follow a more peaceful policy with its own Kurds, just like before June 2015.
As will be seen, all plans of Ankara overlap with the realities of Syria, just like the beginning of 2011.
In other words, the solution of all problems of Turkey depends on the cooperation with Iran and Russia… and they point to Assad.
I do not know if it will actually happen, but I think Putin will go around the streets of Damascus in the first weeks of 2018… It would not be hard to guess the rest…
The western countries and the Kings, Emirs and Sheikhs of the Gulf will get round Turkey as they always have… Everything is clear.
All that is required are political will, determination and decision
This time the decision must be absolutely correct.
Turkey cannot endure mistakes for another 6 years.
I promise, the price would be very high this time… for Turkey and the entire region.
The cooperation between Iran and Russia is proof that this is a known fact, now.
It is a very interesting balance/equation;
The Persian, Ottoman and Russian empires are looking for a common and correct formula for Abbasi and Umayyads.
There are many more details in the equation, but they cannot be explained here…
What is important is that ESED becomes ESAD again, as soon as possible and this is not very difficult either.
At the end of the day, we are only talking about changing a “single” letter here to save everyone and everything and it will be worth it.
There is no other way.
Those who think that there are other ways should read the situation well.
If this 6 years trouble has not been enough for them, it will be too late for everybody, when they realize they cannot survive another trouble to come for the next 60 years, this time
I am telling you…
I said it before and it all came true…
HÜSNÜ MAHALLİ
Veteran Journalist
& Opinion Leader
in Middle East Politics
