Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announces inflation forecast

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) President Murat CETINKAYA has announced the inflation forecast. CBRT did not change year-end inflation forecast figures. However, food inflation forecast increased from 13 percent to 16 percent. CETINKAYA said, “We expect a figure in the range of 12.1-17.1 percent (midpoint 14.6 percent) at the end of 2019”

The president also shared following information:

“The loss of acceleration in global economic activities continued in the last quarter of 2018. The growth rate slowed down in developing countries. Inflation increased slightly in the developing countries group. There is a moderate recovery in first-quarter credit utilization.

The inflation report includes reserve analysis. In the first quarter of 2019, there was a partial recovery in economic activity compared to the previous period. Due to the tightness in financial conditions, total demand conditions continued to affect inflation in the direction of decline.

The improvement in the current account balance is expected to continue in the upcoming period. Producer price pressure on consumer prices continued in the first quarter. The tight monetary policy stance has been preserved, taking into account the risks to price stability. We expect the recovery process to continue in the current account balance.

The food inflation forecast has been increased from 13 percent to 16 percent. 2020 year-end food inflation was updated at 11 percent. The previous one was about 10 percent. 2019 year-end inflation forecast remained unchanged. As in the first report, we expect 14.6 percent. We estimate that inflation will be realized in the range of 12.1-17.1 percent (mid-point 14.6 percent) at the end of 2019.

We expect inflation to be between 5.1-11.3 percent at the end of 2020 (mid-point 8.2 percent)”.