Published On: Sat, Dec 30th, 2017

Could Ak Party leader find 51 percent in presidential election in 2019?

Could Ak Party leader find 51 percent in presidential election in 2019?

Tayyip Erdoğan & Meral Akşener –

In presidential elections to be held in 2019 Mr. ERDOGAN who is the leader of ruling Ak Party (and current president of Turkey) is considered by many to have the biggest chance to be elected  the president of Turkey for the next term, as well. On the other hand Good Party (İyi Parti) leader Meral AKSENER is most probably another candidate to run for president in 2019 and also considered to be a tough rival for Erdogan in the arena of politics.

The question that needs an answer for many people is what would happen if Erdogan could not find 51 percent in the first and second rounds of the presidential election. To be more important would there be such a possibility and a very scary one for the current president, it goes without saying. Well, some experts in Turkish politics comment this could indeed be a possibility due to following reasons;

If the CHP, the main opposition party finds a suitable candidate, which may be Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu himself for instance (or another name), some experts do not believe that Erdogan could pass 50 percent in the first round despite the support from MHP, provided HDP (pro-Kurdish opposition party) also shows a candidate. In other words they do not see it very possible for Erdoğan to pass 50 percent in the first round of the election.

If Erdogan receives 45 per cent of votes – which can be 44 per cent or even 40 per cent and his opponents get 10-15-20 percent, in this case it is very likely he could not find 50.5 or 51 percent in the second round, either. In such a scenario his opponent could find 51-51 percent because Erdogan would have no additional 6-7 points to come in the second round. He would still have his 44-45 in the second round but the rest of the votes would go to his rival. Regardless who the competitor is, he or she could even get 55 percent as all who are against Erdogan would for that person – in our case AKSENER, for instance.

In other words ERDOGAN will receive his highest votes in the first round which would under no circumstance reach 51 percent. In the coming election he will have to challenge tough opponents such as AKSENER and even KILICDAROGLU as another possibility. On the other hand, economic problems are adding up all the time, as well which is a disadvantage for ERDOGAN prior to the elections.

To be equally and even more important one of the most serious factors in Tayyip Erdogan’s loss of votes could be the issue regarding dismissal of several AK Party mayors for an unconvincing reason such as “we need to regenerate our organization” which a considerable portion Ak Parti electorate has obviously not regarded as a loyal attitude towards those officials who gave a political battle for Ak Party for almost 15 years. Many supporters would like to know the reason behind this move which they might otherwise consider unfair. Consequently, this situation could also have its reflection in results of elections to come.

All in all, judging on above factors it is obvious that the current president of Turkey is to face a tough challenge in upcoming elections, exposed to prospects of losing his chair to one of his opponents which would obviously be an undesirable scenario for Ak Party, by all means.

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