Published On: Wed, Jan 8th, 2020

How would Turkey be affected by crisis between Iran and US after missile attack on US bases?

The conflict in the ME between Iran and the USA seems to be badly climbing. After top Iranian general was taken out by the US via a drone attack carried out in Iraq, Iran had vowed to retaliate by hitting American bases in the region. Iran kept its word and struck some US bases in Iraq also claiming 80 US soldiers were killed as a result of the raid.

The first details from the agencies were that ballistic missiles were used in the attack, which was carried out by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Army and that 2 US air bases U.S. in Iraq were targeted. The first images after Iran hit US bases with ballistic missiles were broadcast by Al-Hurra, the US television channel broadcasting in the Middle East. Iranian state television announced that 80 U.S. soldiers were killed in the attacks. Iraq shared important information about the attack.

The first statement from Iran after the shooting of US bases in Iraq came from foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. The Minister testified that Iran had attempted under Article 51 of the United Nations Convention to defend itself against attacks on its citizens. “We do not want tension or war, but we will protect ourselves against it if there is any attack,” Zarif said via social media. On the other hand an adviser to Iran’s President Rouhani said “U.S. intervention would result in total war”.

The picture could be as follows in the meantime;

The US seems to be forcing Iran to do something like this for a while. The US wants to get Iran and its extensions out of the region and Iraq in the first place. Until now they were pursuing a very different policy. After Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, responsible for a wide range of areas from Afghanistan, Lebanon, Yemen with personal connections were killed the picture seems to be clearer. Some experts believe in the fight against ISIS, America knowingly paved the way for Iran. When Iran was strong, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia were scared and invited America to support them. Now America has changed targets. It is now necessary to weaken Iran. The questions is “Could killing of Soleimani have been executed to provoke Iran” so that the next steps to be taken by the US would be verified by the rest of the world.

Experts also say this attack by Iran should not be considered the equivalent of the attack killing Soleimani. But to relieve the pressure of public opinion, Iran gave the message “we went and fired 15 missiles.  On the other hand the US already has 13 scenarios and the locations are probably obvious. America is probably preparing to give Iran the answer it wants”.

Then again that was probably the best answer Iran could have given. It chose 500 km range missiles, not targets in different locations, specifically responding in Iraq. At the same time, Iran gave the message, “We are here to stay in Iraq. You can’t kick us out”.

As for the level of threat in the region; The UAE and Saudi Arabia could certainly be considered in danger, particularly if America retaliates and the response hurts Iran. Israel could also be in danger obviously and that is the main reason it has been encouraging the United States to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities, all along. As we know, Iran withdrew from the nuclear deal. However it already has acquired nuclear technology, but not enough pure uranium. At the moment experts believe Iran needs time for nuclear technology. Israel says Iran should be hit so hard that it should go back 20-30 years. If this alternative is preferred America could target Iran’s nuclear facilities by its ships and cruise missiles. Still prospects of a third world war would not be that strong, the opinion leaders believe.

And as for Turkey, this country needs to maintain good relations with Iran. In fact Turkey has not fought Iran since 1639. It goes without saying Turkey should not allow the US to use bases in Turkey for any air operation against Iran.

Turkey and Russia may have a softening role in this game. Turkey has relations with Iran as well as with the US. In fact Russia may also be on the softening side of relations on this issue. Without taking sides, both Turkey and Russia can handle this issue through efficient communication as well as cooperation. Otherwise there would not be a world war but many innocent people could die once again.

As for the economy, it could be expected that a further climbing confrontation between 2 countries would have a negative impact resulting weakening of TL against US dollar etc.

The bottom line is Turkey would not be in danger in case of further confrontation between both countries, provided it does not take sides and adopts the role mediator only if asked.

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