Published On: Mon, Nov 27th, 2017

Article: It is not “pessimism” to say exchange rates will rise… It is only realism (Prof. Emre Alkin)




Prof. Emre ALKIN is a prominent lecturer and expert on economy issues. Down below you will find translation from an article by ALKIN shared on his Instagram account. We certainly believe it is worth sharing and convey our thanks for this “right on target” article.

It is not “pessimism” to say exchange rates will rise… It is only realism
(Article by Prof. Emre Alkin)

While the US Dollar kept passing the 1.50, 2.00, 2.50, 3.00, 3.50 levels in a consistent manner over the last 15 years, a war was declared against a group called “calamity howlers” or “chronic pessimists” and the group on the other end was described as “chronic optimists”.

It is not a skill to say that the rates will rise. Those who made statements on this matter every day for 15 years we left behind have certainly been rather boring.

Because the depreciation of the TL, which is almost as old as the Republican History and which no government has succeeded in stopping since the 1940s, is a situation that can be avoided “without lagging far behind the West” as Atatürk stated at the time.



The previous governments have tried “not to lag behind the West” by producing more and trying to do things larger, deeper, or wider than the West. In brief, developing countries would not be among the countries that consume the highest quantities of cement today according to national income levels, if they had considered keeping same pace with the West, in education-arts-sports-science. Unfortunately, Turkey is among such countries.

As increase in welfare is an outcome to be achieved via free thinking, competition and education on equal terms, referred countries are not able to develop despite high growth figures accomplished.

At this point one wonders if the expression “Some countries cannot develop because they cannot develop” used by a leading figure in “development economy” turns out to be true.

One thing is certain though; As long as such countries continue with plans and programs that do not take the saying Unless the quality of human capital increases, even if the quantity of the physical capital rises, the productivity will fallby economists into serious consideration, the currency of these countries will continue to decline.

 

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