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Will Turkey be engaged in another conflict sending troops to Libya?

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Turkey’s Libya adventure, which started when Turkey took part in the NATO intervention to overthrow Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, is becoming increasingly dangerous. After Gaddafi had been lynched, Libya was torn between Islamist forces with different tendencies and tribes with historical animosity. Following the elections in 2014 it was split into two governments and parliaments after which regional and international powers started a proxy war in this country.

The bad news for Turkey is  Libya is a country where Turkey also seems to be engaged in, now and it may not be easy for Turkey to get out of the conflict in this country, any more.

The most recent crisis started when the Libyan National Army leader Khalifa Hafter adopted an attitude towards Turkey as if two countries were in war and detained 6 Turkish citizens.  Despite the release of said Turkish citizens after two days, the danger is still there. The reason is Turkey now seems to enter into a new confrontation with the bloc led led bySaudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, with which Turkey has already been in a kind of “Cold War” at many places for quite a while.

The current picture in Libya is as follows: The Tobruk-based House of Representatives, its affiliated government and the Libyan National Army on one hand and soldiers supporting the Tripoli-based National Reconciliation Government, the Supreme State Council, a continuation of the National General Congress dominated by Islamists as well as the Islamist militia forces supporting them and the Egyptian resistance groups on the other hand are fighting for dominance in this country.

More clearly expressed, the group formed by Saudi Arabia, Emirates and Egypt have put their whole weight on the Tobruk side, while Turkey and Qatar have put their weight on the Tripoli wing, to dominate Libya.

After the attack launched by General Khalifa Hafter’s forces on the capital Tripoli, critical developments may now be ahead for Libya. Based on report by Arab media it does not seem a remote possibility that the national reconciliation government headed by Fayiz Sarrac may lose remaining areas it currently holds in Tripoli, to its rivals. In fact several news about the collapse of the international community-accepted Memorandum of Understanding government, are seen to be circulating.

As for Turkey, after many countries intervened in the process following Hafter’s attack in Libya, Erdogan administration also said Turkey could send troops if the national reconciliation government requests it. In response, Egypt publicly re-declared its support for Hafter, servicing its self-produced tanks to the media. Some political experts in the region comment that many observers fear the escalating tension between Egypt and Turkey within the Libyan framework could further cause a bigger headache. Thus same experts also comment “The immediate question now is whether the memorandum government, led by Sarrac, will seek the help of President Erdogan, who has promised to protect him. Will planes bomb Turkish ships loaded with troops and equipment when they arrive at Libyan ports?”

All in all looking at the issue from Turkey’s point of view it would be another (and very) costly bill to pay in terms of foreign relations in the region and especially concerning the already suffering economy of the country if Turkey was to get involved in this crisis more deeply.

Judging on the policies it has followed the government has made big mistakes regarding Syria issue – as evaluated by many (and unbiased) opinion leaders and experts.

This has cost Turkey a real big headache such as a huge bill of approximately US $ 40 billion, serious discomfort among citizens due to millions of refugees and even loss of prestige globally – not to forget loss of many lives to be more important than all the rest.

It is now our hope and pray that the ultimate power ruling Turkey does not dare make another giant mistake by dragging this country into another war in a faraway land – mainly because the national reconciliation government represents IKHWAN, the Muslim Brothers in other words which Turkey’s President has never denied his support in whatever issue this group has faced in the region so far… and at a cost of causing hostility between Turkey and Egypt which has obviously been to the disadvantage of lonely Turkey in the region.

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