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A brain storming about “What awaits Turkey politically in the near future?”

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Turkey, which is the most important country in the Middle East in almost all respects and of great importance for Europe in particular and the entire Western bloc, has gone through a time of very intensive developments in the last 2 decades. Needless to say AK Party government headed by President Recep Tayyip ERDOGAN (PM at the time) has been in power all along with a good enough majority of vote in parliament to take almost any steps to achieve their targets. Thereafter, ERDOGAN has had another chance to rule as a president with immense political and administrative power during the last few years.

Talking about economy to start off with, AK Party has mainly and in a disproportionate manner focused on the construction sector as a basis to grow the economy of the country – as many would/might comment – all along. This being the case several groups/companies extremely prospered but at the same time citizens were able to see/observe many new works such as bridges, airports, hospitals, underground passages like Marmaray which have all served the ruling party as the most practical argument to persuade/convince their supporters that AK Party was doing a real good work (in fact the best that had never been seen before) for the country.

When one considers the work accomplished by the ruling party (headed by Erdogan as a very strong leader hard on anyone to oppose his opinions) it would not be fair to ignore what has been done in the country in terms of above accomplishment. However, that is certainly one part of the story not good enough to improve the welfare of the country and wealth of its citizens.

It is noted by many that while realizing above mentioned accomplishments the ruling party did not use its financial resources in a feasible and to be more important fair manner at all. The revenues created in the country were not distributed in a fair manner as expressed by many experts, meaning the population did not benefit from it in a fair manner. Some groups, companies and particularly those close to the administration substantially prospered while ordinary citizens kept getting poorer and poorer. This statement would easily be supported by official figures shared by state institutions such as Statistics Institute. In fact the GNP of Turkey which was over US$ 12,000 until a few years ago has now dropped to somewhere near US$ 8,000 which is said to be a crystal clear picture of the prevailing situation.

During its ruling period the government has sold many assets of Turkey under the program of privatization but has not used the funds thus obtained in a feasible way again as claimed by reputable opinion leaders. Turkey has lost so much potential in terms of production capability/capacity. The industry has not been improved like it should have been to create more GNP and employment opportunities, and neither has the agriculture sector enjoyed the attention it normally deserves to make Turkey one of the leading countries in the world in this area.

We are not referring corruption arguments etc. here which have been on the agenda of the country for long periods of time (which could be considered as another good reason for claims that the administration has not used financial resources in a fair and correct manner as should have been done).

However, we need to mention at this point that the declining economy (as far as wealth and welfare of citizens are concerned) has caused AK Party (and its leader to be more important certainly) to start losing the support it enjoyed for such a long while. Due to several issues such as high inflation and poverty to be in the first place, people have finally and gradually started to show reaction – not to be welcome by the ruling party certainly. Many survey companies have been sharing unbiased reports confirming the alliance of the ruling party and its small partner (National Movement Party) would definitely lose an election to be held today.

This situation has only made things worse for the ruling group who might believe they could likely face unfavorable charges regarding violation of constitution and other various issues in case they lose power. Thanks to its control over the judiciary, this seems to have caused the ruling power to further harden its grip on all areas and rule the country with more pressure inserted on any movement, group and free press to be in the first plan, objecting/opposing some unacceptable/unfair practices of the administration.

The picture as it looks now is telling us that the ruling party is in a blind alley and is desperately seeking a way out to ensure they can win next elections once again (well, for reasons explained above apparently). This being the case, “the brain-team” of the alliance seems to have been badly focused on creating solutions to include those related to political engineering, as well (with success? Does not look like it so far).

However, the Nation Alliance on the other hand seems to be getting stronger each and every day not to forget the additional contribution expected to be provided by two new parties established by once executive top members of AK Party; That is Ali Babacan (Deva Party) and Ahmet Davutoğlu (Gelecek Party).

All in all, it can easily be said that Turkey is bound to experience some of the most crucial times in its history in the coming months. These developments will certainly shape its future and opinion leaders comment that Turkey is such a powerful country with all its human and natural resources that it will immediately start to rise again under the direction of a competent and capable administration.

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