The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) published the July Market Participants Survey, which was conducted with 65 participants consisting of representatives from the real and financial sectors as well as professionals.
INFLATION FORECAST GOES DOWN
According to the survey, the expectation for July’s CPI increase, which was 2.41% last month, rose to 2.77% during this survey period.
The expectation for end-of-year CPI increase for the current year decreased from 43.52% to 42.95%.
The CPI increase expectation for 12 months ahead decreased from 31.79% to 30.02%, and for 24 months ahead, it decreased from 20.33% to 19.32%.
DOLLAR EXPECTATION FOR 12 MONTHS FROM NOW IS 41 LIRA
While the participants’ end-of-year dollar/TL expectation decreased from 37.7463 to 37.3667, the 12-month ahead dollar/TL expectation increased from 41.4115 to 41.5175.
The end-of-year current account deficit expectation, which was 29 billion dollars in the previous survey period, decreased to 27.6 billion dollars in this period.
The current account deficit expectation for the next year also decreased to 27.1 billion dollars.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expectation for the current year increased to 3.4%, while it decreased to 3.6% for the next year.
INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION REVEALED
The current month and 3 months ahead expectation for the policy rate by the CBRT is 50%. The expectation for the policy rate 12 months ahead decreased from 35.90% to 34.57%.
