Regarding the economy of the country an important question is; “Will the performance to be shown by tourism which is Turkey’s foreign exchange source, be effective in determining the course of the dollar exchange rate?”
The “foreign exchange production machine” of Turkey which was disrupted by the epidemic last year, has incurred damage due to disasters and natural events this year. The performance of Turkey’s most important foreign exchange source after exports until the end of the year could be effective in determining the course of the dollar exchange rate.
The dollar does not leave a gap; it bounces as it sees the field of movement. It speeds up in panic, and calms down in calm periods. When there is no volume, it simply waits.
This being the case, tourism referred to as chimney-free (bacasız sanayi) industry, becomes the most important resource that Turkey can rely on in foreign exchange provision. The performance of exports is obvious, but it is still insufficient to meet concerned foreign exchange needs, the reason being “dependence on imports”… However, the recovery in tourism, is of golden value and it has the capability to determine the fate of the current account deficit for the last quarter of the year.
The Ministry of culture and Tourism has announced that the number of foreign visitors was 4,36 million in July, and the number of foreign visitors increased by 367.45% year-on-year in July. We could certainly evaluate this data as positive.
The problem however is that we have almost reached the end of the season. The year-end tourism revenue target of $20 billion is too optimistic. For this, 30 million additional tourists should be expected, which does not seem to be possible due to shortage of time as well as the negative impact of the virus variants – this is despite the extraordinary effort shown by the tourism industry.
What figures can Turkey reach in tourism revenues this year?
Turkey exceeded $35 billion in 2019 before the outbreak. Last year, with closures and travel restrictions, the revenues were only $ 4.5 billion – despite estimates of $ 12.5 billion.
A realistic expectation this year in tourism revenue would be well below 2019 but certainly above 2020. In the meantime, if the industry shifts its focus from the number of tourists to spending per tourist, Turkey would definitely produce more tourism revenues.
