Opposition Momentum Continues – According to the latest surveys released in September by TEAM, PanoramaTR, Metropoll, and AREA research companies, Türkiye’s main opposition party CHP continues to lead the political race. In three of the four polls, CHP came out ahead, while the ruling AKP managed to surpass it in only one.
CHP Holds a Clear Lead
TEAM’s report shows CHP with 41.1 percent of the vote, keeping a strong lead over AKP, which stands at 32.3 percent. DEM Party follows with 7.2 percent, while MHP trails at 5.4 percent. The rest of the ranking includes the Victory Party with 3.6 percent, the İYİ Party with 2.9 percent, the New Welfare Party (YRP) with 2.7 percent, and the newly formed Anahtar Party at 1.9 percent.
AKP Still Close Behind
AREA’s September results also place CHP first with 32.3 percent, while AKP follows closely at 30.8 percent. DEM Party ranks third with 9.4 percent, followed by MHP at 9 percent and İYİ Party at 7 percent. Smaller parties such as Zafer, Anahtar, and YRP continue to make up the lower end of the spectrum.
Nationalists Lose Ground
PanoramaTR’s findings echo a similar trend, with CHP leading at 36.6 percent and AKP slightly behind at 34.3 percent. DEM Party sits at 8.2 percent, while MHP’s support has fallen to 5.1 percent. Zafer Party, Anahtar, YRP, and İYİ Party follow with smaller but notable shares, signaling a fragmentation among right-wing and nationalist voters.
A Narrow Win for AKP in One Poll
Only Metropoll’s survey places AKP ahead with 29.5 percent, just a single point above CHP, which stands at 28.5 percent. MHP, İYİ Party, and DEM Party hover between 8 and 9 percent, while YRP, Zafer, and Anahtar remain in the low single digits. The gap between the two main parties remains razor-thin, showing a competitive political climate ahead of local elections.
MHP’s Decline Becomes More Noticeable
Data from multiple polls reveal that nationalist parties like MHP continue to lose voter support compared to previous elections. MHP, which received 11.1 percent in 2018 and 10.1 percent in 2023, now averages around 9 percent in current surveys. The İYİ Party also saw a decline from 9.9 percent to around 7 percent. Meanwhile, the Zafer Party’s rising trend draws attention, as its vote share has doubled from 2.2 percent in 2023 to 4.6 percent. Anahtar Party remains a minor player but shows steady participation at around 2.3 percent.
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