Recently, there have been significant developments in the stock market and the dollar exchange rate. Turkish Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz clarified that there will be no new taxes on the stock market or cryptocurrencies, which alleviated investor uncertainties.
Following this announcement, the stock market saw accelerated growth, with the BIST 100 index surpassing 10,000 points. Bank stocks, in particular, surged by over 5%.
Reasons for the Stock Market Rise
One of the main reasons for this rise in the stock market is the recent changes in the reserve requirement ratios for the banking sector. The reserve ratio for short-term Turkish lira deposits was increased from 12% to 15%, while the ratio for foreign currency deposits was lowered from 8% to 5%. These changes have increased banks’ appetite for lending, creating significant activity in the stock market.
From a technical perspective, maintaining levels above 10,000 points in the BIST 100 index is seen as a crucial resistance point. For the year-end, a target range of 12,000-13,000 points is projected. However, for this upward trend to continue, factors such as inflation, currency stability, and positive geopolitical developments are crucial.
Have Dollar/TL Expectations Changed?
As for the dollar/TL exchange rate, Deutsche Bank has forecasted a year-end rate of 36 TL, while the Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) survey predicts a rate of 37.16 TL. In the Medium-Term Economic Program, however, the exchange rate expectation is set at 33 TL. The general market expectation is that the rate will exceed this target. If the dollar were to close the year at 33 TL, it would be considered a surprise. The resolution of the U.S. elections in November and the clarification of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may help reduce uncertainties surrounding the exchange rate.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend, uncertainties persist around the dollar exchange rate, and it seems unlikely that current levels will be maintained until the end of the year.
