In September, inflation in Turkey rose by 2.97%, surpassing expectations, and annual inflation decreased to 49.38%. For the first time since 2021, consumer inflation fell below the policy interest rate (50%).
This unexpected inflation pushed expectations for an interest rate cut in November to December. Instead of a rate cut, the Central Bank is expected to take macroprudential measures.
The rise in education prices was significant, with university fees increasing by 45.27% and student dormitory fees by 50.4%. In the food sector, inflation rose by 2.48%, driven by increases in the prices of eggs, fresh fish, and vegetables. Rental prices in the housing sector increased by 7.62% monthly, reaching an annual increase of 117.43%, and housing group inflation stood at 3.86%.
Core inflation indicators showed higher increases than headline inflation. The B core inflation index rose by 3.22%, while the C core inflation index increased by 3.57%. The producer price index (PPI) rose by 33.09% year-on-year.
Experts emphasize the importance of the inflation trend in October and November for shaping the Central Bank’s future interest rate policy.
