We’re all feeling it—fuel prices keep climbing, and it’s starting to hit harder than before. But here’s the thing: although it feels like fuel prices have been relentlessly going up, the data tells a more nuanced story. Until recently, the increases weren’t quite as steep as many assumed. Prices were already high in relation to people’s purchasing power, so even the smallest bump felt unbearable.
But now, the dynamic is changing.
To really grasp what’s happening, it’s important to look at average monthly prices, not just what you see at the pump on the last day of the month. A price might jump in early June and dip back by the end, but that doesn’t mean there was no impact on inflation. What matters for inflation calculations is the average price across the entire month.
When we look at the first five months of 2025, gasoline prices rose about 8.2%, and diesel climbed 4.3%. Over the past 12 months, from May to May, the increase for gasoline was just 7.2%, and for diesel, around 11.6%. Compared to the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI), which has been rising much more sharply, fuel was—until recently—more of a background actor than a leading force in the inflation drama.
But June is different.
So far this month, gasoline prices have risen by nearly 5%, and diesel is up about 7%. These hikes alone are estimated to directly push June’s inflation up by around 0.22 percentage points. That might not sound huge at first, but that’s the direct effect—before we even factor in the domino effect fuel prices have on transportation, logistics, production, and everyday goods.
And let’s not forget: some businesses take rising fuel costs as a green light to increase their own prices, whether the justification holds or not.
There’s also the global angle. As of this writing, crude oil prices are hovering around $75–76 per barrel. That’s already enough to cause strain, but some analysts fear things could escalate. If oil jumps to $100—or worse, $130 or more—then we’re looking at a possible doubling of fuel prices here at home. Combine that with any pressure on the exchange rate, and the outlook for inflation becomes truly concerning.
So yes, fuel is once again becoming a major force behind inflation in Turkey. This time, the pressure is real—and growing.
Original Artcile By Alaattin Aktaş – June 19, 2025 (Edited and Translated from Ekonomim)
