What Official Inflation Says — And What the Market Shows
Comparisons of old grocery receipts with today’s prices frequently go viral on social media, often highlighting the widening gap between official inflation figures and the cost of daily life. Instead of looking far back, a clearer picture emerges by comparing January 2025 grocery prices with current prices for the same products.
The key question remains: Do official inflation figures reflect what consumers actually experience at the supermarket?
A Basket of Everyday Essentials
For this comparison, a basic grocery list was created consisting of products found in almost every household, including tea, sugar, tomato paste, shampoo, dishwashing detergent, butter, cheese, milk, yogurt, sunflower oil, bananas, oranges, potatoes, diced beef, toilet paper, and bleach.
Using supermarket brochures from the first week of January 2025, standard (non-discounted) prices were recorded and compared with prices at the same supermarket in January 2026.
The One-Year Increase: What the Numbers Show
In January 2025, the total cost of this grocery basket stood at 2,310.50 TL.
By the first week of January 2026, the same items cost 3,065.95 TL.
This represents an annual increase of approximately 33 percent.
By comparison, Turkey’s official statistics agency TÜİK announced annual inflation for 2025 at 30.89 percent, meaning grocery price increases tracked slightly above the official headline rate.
Interestingly, while most products recorded price hikes, dishwashing detergent was the only item to show a price decline over the year.
Where Does ENAG Fit In?
Alongside TÜİK, inflation figures are also published by the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent group of economists that tracks daily price changes using alternative methodologies. ENAG calculated annual inflation at 56.1 percent for the same period.
ENAG’s figure is significantly higher than the official rate because it places greater weight on frequently purchased consumer goods, particularly food and household items, and captures rapid price movements more aggressively.
When viewed through supermarket data, the observed 33 percent grocery inflation falls between TÜİK’s official figure and ENAG’s estimate, suggesting that market prices reflect a middle ground between statistical averages and the public’s perception of rising costs.
Purchasing Power Tells Another Story
In 2025, when the minimum wage stood at 22,104 TL, this grocery basket could be purchased 9.6 times per month.
In 2026, despite the minimum wage rising to 28,075 TL, the same basket can be bought only 9.2 times.
This indicates that although wages increased, purchasing power weakened slightly, particularly for households whose spending is concentrated on food and basic necessities.
The Bottom Line
Market data shows that grocery prices in Turkey rose broadly in line with official inflation, yet the strain on household budgets remains visible. The contrast between TÜİK, ENAG, and real supermarket prices highlights why inflation is not just a number — it is a lived experience shaped by what people buy most often.
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