Rental and For-Sale Housing Prices Show a Clear Decline
Real housing prices in Turkey continued to cool in October. According to the latest “sahibindex Rental and For-Sale Housing Market Outlook” report published by sahibinden.com in collaboration with BETAM, both rental and for-sale real estate indicators show a noticeable downward trend.
Across the country, the real rental price index dropped to 170.2, marking a 3.1% decrease compared to the same month last year.
The real for-sale housing price index also fell by 0.2 points, reaching 153.7 in October. Although nominal prices for for-sale homes increased slightly (0.5 points), the annual real change remained in negative territory at –3.3%.
Declining Rents in Major Cities
The downward trend in real rental prices is visible across the three largest cities:
- Istanbul: 184
- Ankara: 253.1
- Izmir: 198.3
Seasonal patterns that began affecting rental demand in August continued into October. The rental demand index dropped by 16.5% month-on-month, reaching 181.7, but still showed a 4% increase compared to last year.
For-Sale Housing: Prices Still Weak in Real Terms
The real for-sale housing index slipped to 153.7, while annual real price growth stayed negative despite a small monthly uptick.
Housing demand, however, showed signs of revival. The housing demand index increased 5.2% month-on-month and was 5.8% higher than the previous year, suggesting improved buyer interest despite real price declines.
Construction Output Hits a Historic Peak
While housing prices cool, construction activity in Turkey has surged to its highest level in 105 months.
According to Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) data:
- Construction output rose 29.9% year-on-year in September.
- The unadjusted index reached 150.4, marking the highest level ever recorded.
- After calendar adjustments, the index stood at 149.6, and after both seasonal and calendar adjustments, 148.5.
These figures indicate that Turkey’s construction sector has reached its strongest point since January 2017.
What the Index Numbers Mean
BETAM sets a base year equal to 100.
For example: A real rental index of 170 means real rental prices are 70% higher than the base year after adjusting for inflation. A real for-sale index of 153 means real sale prices are 53% higher than the base year in real terms.
If the index drops, that means real prices are falling — even if nominal prices rise slightly.
Why This Matters
Real indexes tell us the true state of housing affordability: In Turkey lately, nominal prices often rise due to inflation. But real prices have started declining — meaning housing is becoming cheaper relative to overall inflation.
This often happens when demand slows or supply increases (such as record-high construction activity).
It also gives deeper insight than nominal prices because: A 5% price increase during 60% inflation is actually a real decrease. A 10% price drop during low inflation may be a real decrease as well.
Real price indexes show actual market cooling or heating, separate from inflation noise.
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