The end of Turkey’s fuel price adjustment system on 1 October could trigger the largest single increase in petrol prices in the country’s history. The expected rise of 12.48 TL per litre could push petrol prices above 90 TL.
A record-breaking petrol price increase is on the horizon in Turkey as the government’s fuel tax relief scheme, known as eşel mobil, is set to end.
Under the current arrangement, the Special Consumption Tax (SCT), known in Turkey as ÖTV, on petrol stands at 4.43 TL per litre. When the scheme ends on 1 October, this amount is expected to rise to 14.83 TL.
The increase in the SCT alone would amount to 10.40 TL per litre. With an additional 2.08 TL in Value Added Tax (VAT), the total increase could reach 12.48 TL per litre.
This would push petrol prices above 90 TL per litre in a single move.
How the Fuel Price Adjustment System Works
Fuel prices in Turkey have risen sharply alongside international oil prices, particularly following the outbreak of the US-Iran war. This has led to repeated discussions of substantial increases in petrol and diesel prices.
To limit the impact on consumers, the government introduced the eşel mobil system on three separate occasions, in March, July and August. The system allows part of a fuel price increase to be absorbed through reductions in the SCT rather than being passed on directly to consumers at the pump.
The First Measures Were Introduced in March
Industry sources explained that the first decision, published in the Official Gazette in March, provided for 75% of fuel price increases to be covered by the SCT, with the remaining portion reflected in pump prices.
A second decision came into effect in July, setting out a new schedule for tax relief.
Under that arrangement, 50% of any increase in fuel prices was to be absorbed by the SCT until 31 July. From 1 August to 30 September, the share covered by the tax was reduced to 25%.
The decision also stipulated that the eşel mobil system would be abolished as of 1 October. If fuel prices fell, the corresponding tax reductions could be reversed through increases in the SCT.
Different Arrangements for Diesel and Petrol
A further decision in August introduced a separate arrangement for diesel fuel.
According to industry sources, the SCT on diesel was set at zero between 13 and 31 August. It was then scheduled to increase by 3 TL each month until the end of the year.
Under this schedule, the diesel SCT would rise to 3 TL in September, 6 TL in October, 9 TL in November and 12 TL in December.
From 1 January 2027, the SCT on diesel is scheduled to reach 13.9006 TL per litre, bringing the eşel mobil arrangement for diesel to an end.
The August decision did not introduce any changes to the system for petrol or LPG.
Petrol Prices Could Exceed 90 TL per Litre
With the petrol tax relief scheme due to expire on 1 October, the SCT on petrol is expected to rise from 4.43 TL to 14.83 TL per litre.
Industry sources say the resulting increase would consist of 10.40 TL in additional SCT and 2.08 TL in VAT, bringing the total increase to 12.48 TL per litre.
This would represent the largest single petrol price increase in Turkey’s history and could push the price of a litre of petrol above 90 TL.
Could a New Decision Prevent the Full Increase?
Industry sources were also asked whether the government might introduce a new decision allowing the SCT on petrol to increase gradually, as it has done with diesel.
Their response was that a phased increase would be possible if a new decision were adopted.
Without such a decision, however, motorists could face a substantial increase in petrol prices on 1 October.
