Turkey is strengthening its defense relationship with the United States while trying to increase its regional influence through new security partnerships with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. But this new direction also creates difficult questions for Ankara’s relations with Russia, Iran and India.
A New Phase in US Turkey Relations
Turkey’s relationship with Washington has entered a new phase after years of tension over the S 400 system, the F 35 program and CAATSA sanctions.
Defense cooperation is now becoming more prominent again, with F 16 modernization, the possibility of Turkey returning to the F 35 program and new roles for Ankara within NATO’s defense structure on the agenda.
A recent US notification to Congress also indicates that Turkey has requested permission to permanently transfer older US made weapons in its inventory to Ukraine. The move would allow Ankara to replace older systems while strengthening its defense cooperation with Washington.
But Moscow may interpret the transfer differently.
The Russia Problem
Turkey has long tried to maintain a delicate balance between Russia and the West, cooperating with Moscow on energy, trade and Syria while supporting Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
The transfer of US made weapons to Ukraine could make that balance more difficult, particularly if Russia sees systems such as ATACMS missiles and MLRS launchers as evidence that Turkey is moving closer to the Western defense structure.
In international politics, perception can be as important as intention.
The Saudi Arabia Pakistan Partnership
Turkey’s new defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan adds another important dimension.
The three countries already cooperate in several areas, including defense, Sudan, the Red Sea, Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa. The new agreement can therefore be seen less as the beginning of a completely new partnership and more as the institutionalization of existing cooperation under a security framework.
But Egypt’s decision not to join is significant.
Cairo appears willing to cooperate with Saudi Arabia on regional security but does not want a binding military alliance that could force it to automatically regard an attack on Saudi Arabia as its own war.
Its message is essentially simple: cooperation yes, bloc politics no.
India and Iran Will Be Watching
Pakistan’s central role in the new security arrangement could also create difficulties for Turkey’s relations with India.
As Turkey becomes more closely connected to Pakistan, New Delhi may increasingly view Ankara through the lens of the wider India Pakistan rivalry.
Iran will also be watching Turkey’s growing defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the United States closely. Ankara may have no intention of creating an anti Iran alliance, but regional countries often interpret new security partnerships according to their own interests and perceptions.
Can the New Formula Work?
Turkey is clearly trying to become a stronger regional power without abandoning its relationship with the United States or giving up its foreign policy autonomy.
The challenge is that every new partnership can create new strategic costs elsewhere.
As Ankara strengthens its ties with Washington, Riyadh and Islamabad, it will have to manage increasingly complicated relationships with Moscow, Tehran, New Delhi and other regional powers.
Turkey’s new foreign policy formula may increase its regional weight, but it will also require increasingly careful diplomacy to prevent its expanding network of alliances from turning potential partners into rivals.
(Article by Zeynep Gürcanlı / ekonomim.com – edited)
