One of the largest investment banks in the U.S., Morgan Stanley, provided its forecast for the USD/TRY exchange rate by the end of 2025. The bank evaluated that the Turkish Central Bank’s continued focus on reducing inflation supports the Turkish lira (TRY). Morgan Stanley projects the USD/TRY exchange rate to be at 43 by the end of 2025.
In its assessment of the Turkish economy, Morgan Stanley noted that the Turkish Central Bank (TCMB) remains committed to lowering inflation, which has been beneficial for the Turkish lira. The bank also mentioned that while they previously expected the exchange rate to reach 36 by the end of 2024, there is a risk that the lira may perform stronger than anticipated.
In their report, Morgan Stanley stated, “Given our forecast that the TCMB will adopt a slower rate-cutting path in the first half of 2025, we continue to believe that the currency remains more attractive than bonds.”
