Turkey’s Inflation exceeds expectations in November 2017

TÜFE (consumer price index) which was expected to increase by 1.2 percent per month, in November went up by 1.49 percent. Annual inflation reached 12.98 percent. In monthly surveys increase in TÜFE expectancies were in the band of 0.4-1.5 percent while the year-end TÜFE estimate was in the band 10.5-12.6 percent. This rate was recorded as the highest rate of the last 14 years.

Thus, it has become certain that the 2017 consumer price index will exceed 10 percent. Even if prices do not increase in December, annual inflation will be 11.15 percent. In November, the increase in clothing and food prices and fluctuations in exchange rates had a strong influence on inflation. The increase in November seems to have spread across all spending groups.

After the inflation, the dollar rate loosened. The dollar / TL which was above 3.94 levels just before the release of concerned economic data went down to 3.91. High inflation has increased expectations that the CBRT will raise interest rates on December 14th. Meanwhile, the Central Bank will announce the monetary and exchange rate policy for 2018 tomorrow.