An Opinion on “Turkey’s Next Election and Erdoğan’s Political Strategy”

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s recent reference to the approaching elections has renewed discussion about when Turkey may go to the polls and what the government’s strategy might be.

Speaking in Rize, Erdoğan said he had renewed his belief that the upcoming elections would be successfully overcome. Political commentator Yaşar Aydın argues that the wording is significant: rather than speaking simply of winning the election, Erdoğan appeared to describe it as an obstacle that has to be overcome on the way to a broader political objective.

When Could the Election Be Held?

According to Aydın, 2027 remains a possible election year, with May or November among the dates being discussed. Some AK Party figures have previously referred to late 2027, while March or April 2028 has also been mentioned.

He argues that Erdoğan’s remarks may indicate a desire for the election to take place sooner rather than later, although the exact timing remains uncertain.

Economic Problems Are Not the Whole Story

Yaşar Aydın does not believe that economic measures alone will determine the government’s approach to the election. Turkey has experienced a prolonged economic crisis, he argues, and improving a few indicators, changing interest rates or adjusting the minimum wage would not be enough to erase its effects from voters’ minds.

Instead, he sees the main issue as political strategy.

In his interpretation, the government’s objective is to weaken the opposition as a credible alternative and create the impression among voters that it cannot govern effectively. He links this interpretation to the pressure on the opposition, ongoing political operations and the broader political environment.

From this perspective, the government is not relying on one particular political development but on the cumulative effect of many developments, with the aim of reducing public confidence in politics and, ultimately, in the opposition’s ability to govern.

Pressure and Polarisation

Aydın also argues that political pressure extends beyond opposition parties to parts of society that are more vocal or critical.

He points to recent developments involving LGBT+ issues as an example of what he sees as a broader strategy: putting pressure on groups with different lifestyles or views while simultaneously consolidating the government’s own conservative base around those issues.

In his view, this combination of pressure and political consolidation is likely to continue.

Where Is the Opposition Going Wrong?

The discussion then turns to the opposition.

Aydın argues that the opposition has spent too much of the past six months concentrating on its own organisations and internal political calculations while failing to engage sufficiently with the wider problems facing society.

He points to economic difficulties, democracy and the future of Turkey’s electoral system as much larger issues than individual political disputes.

His criticism is that opposition parties have remained too focused on conventional party politics—competition between parties, candidates, organisations and municipalities—rather than creating a broader platform around public demands for change.

A Wider Political Movement

He places Turkey’s political situation within what he describes as a broader international trend, in which authoritarian or highly centralised political systems face growing forms of social resistance.

He argues that many Turkish citizens want to participate more directly in politics and have a greater say over their future, but that established opposition parties have not yet created sufficient space for this participation.

In his view, simply organising large rallies or competing through traditional party structures is not enough. The opposition needs to connect with the wider social demand for political change and bring different groups together around that objective.

The central question, therefore, is not simply what individual opposition parties will do at the next election. It is whether they can build a broader political movement capable of bringing together people who want change.

For Yaşar Aydın, this is where the outcome of the political struggle will ultimately be determined.

Editorial Note: This article is a compact summary of Yaşar AYDIN’s assessment of Turkey’s political situation, based on an interview on BirGün TV (Youtube)