CHP Pulls Ahead: Latest Poll Puts Main Opposition 5.3 Points Ahead of AKP

Erdoğan Says AKP Still Number One—Özel Challenges with “Then Let’s Go to the Polls”

In the ongoing political tug-of-war between Türkiye’s ruling and main opposition parties, the debate over who is truly leading the country continues to heat up. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan recently returned from a visit to Azerbaijan and made a bold claim: “The leading party in Türkiye is the AKP.” His statement came in response to opposition chatter suggesting that the tide had shifted.

But CHP leader Özgür Özel didn’t let that slide. Following a CHP emergency Central Executive Board meeting, held after the detention of three CHP mayors, he directly challenged Erdoğan’s assertion. “You say you’re the number one party. No problem, then—November 2nd, Sunday. Let’s go. If you’re leading, you should be thrilled to head back to the ballot box,” Özel said, calling for early elections with a tone that was part challenge, part dare.

SONAR Releases Its Latest Poll—and It Paints a Different Picture

While the political rhetoric is escalating, data from one of Türkiye’s most accurate polling firms tells a different story. SONAR Research, which correctly predicted the results of both the 2023 general elections and the 2024 local elections, released its latest poll for July—and it’s turning heads.

According to the poll, CHP stands at 36.2 percent, pulling ahead of the ruling AKP, which holds 30.9 percent of the vote. That’s a 5.3-point lead—significant enough to shift the political narrative, at least in public opinion.

This suggests that, contrary to Erdoğan’s confidence, the ruling party may no longer hold the top spot in the public’s eyes.

Where Do the Other Parties Stand?

Beyond the two major players, the political field remains fragmented. DEM Party holds a strong third place with 9.3 percent, while MHP comes in at 7.4 percent. The nationalist İYİ Party and Zafer Partisi follow with 6.3 and 5.1 percent respectively. The Islamist YRP polls at 2.5 percent, and other minor parties together make up the remaining 2.3 percent.

What This Means for Turkish Politics

The results underline a continuing shift in Türkiye’s political dynamics. While the AKP remains a dominant force, the CHP’s recent momentum—especially after its strong showing in the 2024 local elections—suggests a public appetite for change. The real question now is whether this shift in public sentiment will translate into an early general election, or if the ruling party will double down and ride out the rest of its term.