“Difficult decision” awaiting Erdogan: Opposition does not want early elections (Article by Altan Sancar)

There are expectations in Ankara that the general elections scheduled to be held on June 18, 2023 will be brought forward. As dates such as April May 16 and May 14 are being discussed in the ruling wing, the idea of not supporting a decision in this direction in the Parliament, is gaining weight in the opposition. If the Parliament fails to take a decision, President Erdogan has the right to dissolve the Parliament and go to elections. In this case, it is expected that the candidacy debate will be opened for Erdogan.

The AKP, which has closed the doors to early election calls from the opposition for a long time, is now looking warmly at bringing the elections forward. The AKP members call this ’bringing the elections forward‘ instead of ’early elections’.

Dates such as April 16 and May 14, which are after the date of entry into force of the new election law, are being discussed within the party.

The opposition doesn’t want it for two reasons

The opposition wing, on the other hand, is distancing itself from the AKP’s idea of ‘bringing forward the elections’. The opposition, which wanted early elections in early 2021 and 2022, had not received any response (positive ones at least) to these calls.

Even at that time, the voices of “why should we say yes to opening the way for Erdogan’s third candidacy” had risen from within the opposition. The opposition, which did receive any response to their calls, no longer welcomes the early election decision from the Parliament.

In particular, CHP and IYI Party politicians point to Erdogan’s candidacy discussions and emphasize that they will not take part in blocking this from happening. The idea that stands out in the entire opposition is that the government will want to go to the elections before the minimum wage melts.

A CHP deputy thinks that the AKP wants to create a ‘relief period’ (so to say) that will affect the undecided electorate: “They are thinking of going to the elections by raising the minimum wage, lending to shopkeepers (small businesses) and making available an abundance of money in the market; by putting pressure on the markets (to keep prices down) and thus recovering the situation a little. That’s why they want to move the election earlier. They have the goal of collecting votes and winning, because after the election there will be a recipe for economic disaster and pain. And now we say ’The elections will be in June 2023′.”

Another formula on the agenda

The CHP and GOOD Party members also remind that the government has another formula in hand to bring the elections forward. According to the Constitution, Erdogan has the power to dissolve the Parliament and hold elections. However, in this case, since the presidential elections will also be renewed, it will be assumed that Erdogan has completed his term of office.

In this case, the debate begins about whether Erdogan, who has been president for two terms, will be a candidate again. The opposition says Erdogan cannot run again, noting that he will have served two terms as president. The ruling wing, on the other hand, argues that there is no such obstacle in front of Erdogan, since this is his “first term under the new constitution” (previously held referendum and the presidential system and all). Although the opposition thinks that Erdogan will not be able to run again, they are close to the idea of not bringing this to the forefront. Especially the CHP side thinks that this kind of discussion could enable Erdogan to benefit from the “perception of being treated unfair” (aggrieved) in the eyes of the public which in return could contribute to increasing his votes.

‘Erdogan understands that no such decision will come out from the Parliament’

The GOOD Party on the other hand believes that Erdogan has understood there will be no early election decision from the Parliament based on his following statement “We will ask for authority for the last time” in a recent speech in Samsun and he has started giving messages accordingly. Party staffs say that it is incomplete to interpret Erdogan’s words only as ‘loyalty politics’. They states that Erdogan will use his authority to bring forward the elections because there will be no decision from the Parliament and that he has already launched the “I can be a candidate imposition”.

‘It’s not going to be an easy decision’

The CHP and IYI Party believe that Erdogan’s renewal of the elections will also lead to a significant disadvantage. A deputy from IYI Party says: “Erdogan’s use of his authority to dissolve the Parliament will clearly show a situation to the public. A section of the people will say ‘He has so many powers that he closed the Parliament when the decision he wanted was not taken’. This will also be effective in the next period through voting behavior. When the National Assembly is dissolved, they will realize (notice) the limitlessness of his authority rather than the end of Erdogan’s service. This is not going to be an easy decision.”

According to the current system, a decision of the president or a three-fifths majority of the Parliament is required to hold early elections. The support of at least 360 deputies is required to make a decision on early elections in the Parliament.

The AKP, MHP and BBP have a total of 335 deputies, and 25 votes from the opposition are needed for the elections to be held early. In this case, Erdogan has the authority to dissolve the Parliament and renew the elections.

ARTICLE BY ALTAN SANCAR (edited by BTT)
Original link: https://www.diken.com.tr/mecliste-hesap-karisti-muhalefet-erken-secim-istemiyor/