Election in Turkey: Opinion leader says Nation’s Alliance should win election in first round!

As Turkey’s most vital elections to be held on May 14 approaches, Mehmet Ali KULAT, CEO of MAK Research Co. which is one of the prominent political survey companies, has made warnings a short time before the election, saying “The Nation’s Alliance needs to win the election in the first round of the presidential election on May  14” adding the second round could be to the advantage of the People’s Alliance (headed by AK Party).

VOTERS HAVE MADE THEIR DECISIONS, BUT NOT ALL WILL SAY IT

According to the latest survey, 8 percent of voters seem undecided about which alliance they will vote for. Kulat interprets this result as follows: “In fact, the voters have largely made up their minds. But they’re not sharing. That’s where the problem is. So that’s the point where we’re wrong, or the area where we’re likely to be wrong. Otherwise, it’s not that the voters haven’t made up their minds. We know that in Turkey, for example, civil servant voters don’t say their decision because of different concerns. The answers given by Kurdish voters in public opinion surveys, predominantly Kurdish voters living in urban areas can be very misleading. The young generation has different concerns. They are going to take an exam, they’re going to get a job. That’s why they can’t say their true opinions. When all these things are put on top of each other, the voters speak 20-25 days before the election, especially if the opposition’s chances of winning stand out. They do not speak in the process other than this.

IF THEY GET 5 PERCENT, PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL ADVANCE TO THE SECOND ROUND

According to Kulat’s research, the AKP’s vote share is in the 34-35 percent band, and the opposing CHP’s is in the 24-25 percent band. As a result of the fluctuation in the IYI Party, its vote decreased from the 15-16 percent band to 13 percent. Two or three points of voters went to the CHP and the Memleket Party (led by former presidential candidate and former CHP deputy Muharrem INCE), albeit very slightly. Kulat commented on the voting rates as follows:

“The Nation’s Alliance seems to be in the 44 percent band. In the People’s Alliance, there is an AK Party in the 35 percent band, the MHP and BBP bloc in the 6-7 percent band. Some of them, especially taking into account the AK Party, say, ‘There is a decrease in the AK Party’s votes, but there is no decrease in the president’s (meaning Erdogan) votes’. This is not a correct thesis. Whichever level of votes the nation alliance receives, the presidential candidate of the nation’s alliance will be very close to each other, as well as the deputy and Presidential candidate at that level. The only exception here is where Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan (other 2 presidential candidates) are standing. If these two names receive a total of 5 percent or more of the vote, the presidential election may advance to the second round and could cause Nation’s Alliance to lose the presidential election.”

CANDIDATE OF NATION’S ALLIANCE IN THE 54-55 PERCENT BAND

Mehmet Ali Kulat said, “There is an AK Party whose vote share goes up to 45 percent against Kemal KILICDAROGLU, as HDP (pro-Kurdish party) has decided not to field a presidential candidate, enabling KILICDAROGLU vote share to climb up to the 54-55 percent band, very likely. There is still a long way to the election. This is what the picture looks like right now. But if there wasan unusual break in the IYI (Good) Party during this process, if something happens somewhere else on the table (meaning 6 party Nation’s Alliance) meanwhile , I will talk about it when it happens”. Kulat continues his explanation as follows: “When we put the HDP next to the Nation’s Alliance and the vote share reaches 55 percent, it can get very close to the majority that will change the Constitution. When the election date is very close, the voter usually shows a tendency towards the winning side. We can’t see it now.

THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND ROUND

I’m saying the presidential election based on the current picture, it looks like the Nation’s Alliance will win. But we also need to see Muharrem INCE and Sinan OGAN, other 2 candidates. The equation may change according to the votes they can get. Because Mr. Ince and Mr. Ogan will mainly get votes from the Nation’s Alliance. The equation will change depending on the votes they will receive. Because 50 + 1 is important.

Especially if Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan get 5 percent of the vote in total, the election will (may) go to the second round. In my opinion, it is highly likely that Erdogan will win the second round of the election.

If the election goes to the second round, they (electorate of Nation’s Alliance) may have motivation problems. Because motivation becomes more and more difficult (to handle) in 6 separate parties. The first round will be easier for the nation alliance to win and the 2nd round will be easier for the people’s alliance to win. Also, when we get to the second round, this will not be possible because the Nation alliance’s ballot box security (likely) and the parliamentary election will be over.”

EXCERPT from interview made by prominent journalist SAYGI OZTURK and published on SOZCU Newspaper (translated by BTT)