Experts discuss end-of-year forecast for US dollar TL rate which is already above 9 TL
After the decision of the “Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey” (CBRT) to cut interest rates, the dollar has been continuing to refresh its record against TL. Experts at the Grand Bazaar (Istanbul) have evaluated the historical peak TL has seen against the dollar.
Sahap KAVCIOGLU, President of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) had made the following statement in a presentation at the Parliament’s Plan and Budget Commission; “After the interest rate cut, there was currency movement, but when we evaluate global developments, we see that this has nothing to do directly with our interest rate cut.”
Following said statement, the dollar / TL rose to the level of 9,0013 and set a new record during President ERDOGAN’s speech after the cabinet meeting.
CLEARING DEBTS IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN INVESTMENT
Experts say, “There is an impact on the dollar both economically and politically. It is much more important for those who have debts in dollars to close their dollar debts if they can, than to invest right now.” They also note the emphasis on Syria, along with the statements of President Erdogan, have triggered the increase in dollar TL rate.”
A DOLLAR TL RATE OF 10 TL FOR YEAR END WOULD BE NO SURPRISE
Business people at the bazaar explain the reason for the increase in the exchange rate as follows; “We were already expecting 9.20 levels for the end of the year. But the move was drastic. 9.20 level closures are really very dangerous. When we already have these levels, it will not be a surprise, to see a rate of 10 TL for the end of the year.”
Right after these statements, the dollar TL rate reached another record high level of 9.15, on October 13 (many experts claim replacing of 3 top CBRT executives by ERDOGAN, late at night could be another reason to trigger it). As of this morning (October 14) the dollar TL rate is moving around 9.14.
When we look at the most recent developments it is difficult not to see the strong likelihood of dollar TL rate exceeding 10 TL before the end of the year.
