Gold and oil set for a dramatic Monday

Following the attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel, global markets are now on high alert. The market reaction to the weekend strikes is expected to become clear on Monday. Sharp moves are anticipated in both gold and oil, while some analysts warn that the Fed’s rate cuts could give way to rate hikes.

After the attacks on Iran began over the weekend, economist Selçuk Geçer told SÖZCÜ TV that major volatility could hit markets at Monday’s opening.

Following the U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran responded, and clashes escalated into a mutual confrontation. Tensions in the Middle East are expected to start affecting the global financial system from Monday onward.

Commenting on the potential impact on gold and oil markets, Geçer issued the following warnings:

“This operation was almost certain to happen, and the markets already knew it. Gold rose to as high as $5,278 per ounce. The rally also continued after China urged its citizens to leave Iran.

Things are becoming increasingly complicated. Monday is a very risky day. We could see sharp movements in gold. The ounce of gold could reach the $5,500–$5,600 range on Monday.”

Geçer noted that such operations have increasingly been carried out over weekends in recent years to limit immediate market disruption, adding that the real price action would likely begin on Monday.

If Iran ends, China begins

Highlighting growing geopolitical risks, Geçer said the situation may not remain limited to the Iran-U.S.-Israel triangle.

“This creates significant uncertainty. We don’t know whether this will remain within the Iran-U.S.-Israel triangle or whether countries like China and Russia will also become involved. It appears that if the U.S. resolves the Iran issue, it will move to the next phase. The next phase will be China. The U.S. may provoke China via Taiwan. The gold market has been signaling this for months.”

More critical than gold: Oil

According to Geçer, the bigger risk lies in oil prices.

“Oil is a much more important factor than gold. It has already given the signal and is currently around $73.10. Whether the Strait of Hormuz is closed or not may not matter — we could see oil prices rise much faster. A surge in oil is far more important and dangerous than gold.”

Fed rate cuts could turn into hikes

Pointing to inflation risks driven by energy prices, Geçer added:

“Oil will become a major inflation instrument for Europe, the U.S., and the global system. From this point on, we may start talking about Fed rate hikes rather than rate cuts. We could also see rate hikes returning to the European Central Bank’s agenda.”

Turkey will also feel the impact

Geçer warned of a potential global sell-off across asset classes.

“We will see serious selling in equities, bonds, and crypto. This attack will significantly affect the global financial system. As uncertainty and distrust increase, we will begin to see extraordinary price movements. Turkey will also be affected.”

He concluded by stressing that geopolitical risks are far from over, warning that the Taiwan issue could become the second major shock in the coming period.

Keywords: #gold #oil #iran #middleeast #globalmarkets #fed #interestrates #inflation #straitofhormuz #taiwan #geopolitics #turkeyeconomy