JPMorgan updates its dollar TL forecast for end of 2024

According to Bloomberg HT, JPMorgan expects the USD/TRY to be 36 by the end of 2024. The bank’s previous estimate was 34.

The bank’s report stated: “The recent depreciation trend in the lira suggests a trade-off between reserve accumulation and nominal exchange rate performance. In the short term, this trend hinders inflows to the local currency and poses challenges for the disinflation process.

However, as long as this depreciation is priced below what is reflected in futures contracts, which we believe will be the case in the coming months, the Turkish lira still offers a reasonable total return opportunity for investors.”