Turkey’s Central Bank publishes results for “Market Participants Survey” – year end dollar and inflation forecasts

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has published the results of its March 2025 Market Participants Survey. The survey was conducted with 68 participants, including representatives from both the real and financial sectors. The results provide important insights into participants’ year-end inflation and exchange rate expectations, as well as interest rates and growth forecasts.

Year-End Inflation Expectation:

Participants’ expectations for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at the end of 2025 showed a slight decrease compared to the previous survey. In the last survey, the expectation was 28.30%, but it dropped to 28.04% in this period. Additionally, the 12-month ahead CPI expectation fell from 25.26% to 24.55%, while the 24-month ahead CPI expectation showed minimal change, declining from 17.26% to 17.06%.

Dollar/TL and Exchange Rate Expectations:

Participants’ expectations for the year-end exchange rate (USD/TRY) dropped slightly from 42.89 TRY in the previous survey to 42.79 TRY in this survey. The 12-month ahead exchange rate expectation increased from 43.96 TRY to 44.42 TRY.

Interest Rate Expectations:

Participants expect the one-week repo auction interest rate to be 42.50% at the end of the year. The overnight interest rate in the Borsa Istanbul Repo and Reverse Repo Market is expected to be 42.33%.

Growth Expectations:

The 2025 GDP growth expectation among participants increased slightly from 3.0% in the previous survey to 3.1%. The growth forecast for 2026 also rose from 3.9% to 4.0%.

The results of this survey provide valuable insight into how market participants view the economic outlook. The small changes observed in inflation and exchange rate expectations offer clues as to how the economic conditions are expected to evolve in the near future.