Turkey’s Central Bank to announce interest rate decision today
The Central Bank’s interest rate decision will be announced today. All eyes are on this decision. All economists expect an interest rate hike from the Central Bank.
The markets are eagerly awaiting the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) interest rate decision, which is scheduled to be announced at 14:00 today.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will convene under the chairmanship of Hafize Gaye Erkan to make the 12th interest rate decision of the year. It is expected that the CBRT will continue its gradual interest rate hikes and raise the policy rate, which is the one-week repo rate, in today’s meeting.
In June, the CBRT increased rates by 650 basis points, in July by 250 basis points, in August by 750 basis points, and in September, October, and November by 500 basis points each, totaling 3,150 basis points in six meetings.
It is anticipated that the CBRT will continue its interest rate hikes this month as well, but the rate of increase is expected to be reduced from the previous three meetings, from 500 basis points to 250 basis points this month. Additionally, it is expected that the CBRT will complete the tightening process shortly, as indicated in the previous statement.
REUTERS SURVEY
All 12 economists participating in the Reuters survey expect a 250 basis point increase in the policy rate, currently at 40%.
BLOOMBERG HT SURVEY
The median expectation of 24 institutions participating in Bloomberg HT’s survey is that interest rates will increase by 250 basis points in December, reaching 42.5%. The maximum expectation is 45%, and the minimum expectation is 42.5%.
FOREKS SURVEY
The median expectation for the December meeting of the Central Bank, according to the Foreks survey, is that the interest rate will be increased by 250 basis points, rising from 40% to 42.5%.
AA FINANCE SURVEY
AA Finance’s survey on expectations for the Central Bank’s interest rate meeting concluded with the participation of 14 economists. The median of economists’ expectations regarding the change in the policy rate is an increase of 250 basis points.
MORGAN STANLEY, GOLDMAN SACHS, AND DEUTSCHE BANK
Last week, the U.S.-based investment bank Morgan Stanley released a report on its Turkey forecasts. The bank’s economists mentioned that they expect an additional 250 basis point increase in January to reach a final interest rate of 45%.
Goldman Sachs, in their analysis released in recent weeks, stated that they expect the Central Bank to raise the policy rate by another 250 basis points to 42.50% and anticipate the completion of the tightening process.
