Turkey’s March Inflation Figures Are Out — But the Gap Raises Questions

Official Data vs Alternative Estimates

Turkey’s official statistics authority has released its inflation figures for March 2026. According to the data, monthly inflation came in at 1.94%, while annual inflation was calculated at 30.87%.

However, alternative data sources paint a very different picture.

The independent research group ENAG reported a monthly increase of 4.10% and an annual rate of 54.62%. Meanwhile, the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) announced that wholesale prices rose by 2.97% in March, with an annual increase of 37.68%.

Market Expectations vs Reality

Before the release, economists surveyed by AA Finance had expected monthly inflation to fall between 2.04% and 3%, with an annual figure around 31.46%. While the official numbers came close to expectations, the gap between different institutions remains striking.

Why the Big Difference?

As clearly seen, there is a significant discrepancy between official TÜİK data and figures reported by ENAG and even the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce.

This divergence raises ongoing concerns about whether official inflation data fully reflects the real cost of living. Many believe the lower official figures help maintain the perception that the economy is not performing poorly.

Another widely discussed point is the impact on wage adjustments. Lower official inflation allows the government to limit increases in pensions and salaries, effectively keeping public spending under tighter control.

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