What If Özel, İmamoğlu and Yavaş Left CHP? Survey Shows New Party Would Win 35.65%

June 1, 2026 BTT

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CHP leader Özgür Özel speaking at a public event, with a small image of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu inset, illustrating a survey on a potential split within the party — A new survey examines voter preferences in a scenario where Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remains in CHP while Özgür Özel, Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş form a new political party.

A new survey conducted by GÜNDEMAR Research across 60 provinces and involving 2,275 participants has revealed how voters could respond if a court ruling led to a major split within the Republican People’s Party (CHP).

The poll examined voter preferences under two different political scenarios, including one in which Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remains at the head of the CHP while key opposition figures establish a new party.

Survey Explores Two Election Scenarios

The Turkey Agenda Survey, conducted between May 24 and May 27, 2026, asked voters two separate parliamentary election questions.

In the first scenario, respondents were asked: “If a parliamentary election were held this Sunday, which political party would you vote for?”

In the second scenario, participants were asked: “If Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remained leader of the CHP while Özgür Özel, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Mansur Yavaş left the party to establish a new political movement, which party would you vote for in a parliamentary election?”

CHP Leads in Current Political Landscape

Under the current political environment, the CHP emerged as the leading party with 24.98 percent support.

The AK Party followed with 22.01 percent, while 12.03 percent of respondents were undecided or had no opinion. Protest votes were measured at 9.62 percent.

Support for other parties was recorded as follows:

DEM Party: 6.60%
Victory Party (Zafer Party): 5.12%
Good Party (İYİ Party): 4.90%
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP): 4.74%
Key Party (Anahtar Party): 3.26%
Other Parties: 2.84%
New Welfare Party (Yeniden Refah Party): 2.72%
Workers’ Party of Turkey (TİP): 1.18%

Distributed Results Show CHP Maintaining First Place

When undecided voters, no-opinion respondents, and protest votes were proportionally distributed among political parties, the CHP maintained its lead.

The adjusted results were:

CHP: 31.90%
AK Party: 28.09%
DEM Party: 8.42%
Victory Party (Zafer Party): 6.53%
Good Party (İYİ Party): 6.25%
MHP: 6.05%
Key Party (Anahtar Party): 4.16%
Other Parties: 3.62%
New Welfare Party: 3.47%
TİP: 1.51%

New Party Led by Özel, İmamoğlu and Yavaş Emerges as Top Choice

The survey also found that voter preferences could shift dramatically if CHP were to split.

In the hypothetical scenario where Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu remains at the helm of the CHP while Özgür Özel, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and Mansur Yavaş leave the party to establish a new political movement, the newly formed party would become the leading political force in Turkey.

According to the poll, the new party would receive 35.65 percent of the vote, outperforming all existing political parties and fundamentally altering the balance of power within the opposition.

The findings suggest that a significant portion of CHP voters would choose to follow Özel, İmamoğlu, and Yavaş rather than remain with the party under Kılıçdaroğlu’s leadership, highlighting the strong electoral appeal of the three opposition figures.

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