Will Turkey Head to Early Elections? And What Happens to İmamoğlu?

There’s been a lot of buzz lately about early elections in Turkey and what might happen with Ekrem İmamoğlu. A recent interview with Mümtaz’er Türköne – a political analyst known for being close to MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli – adds some serious fuel to that fire.

Türköne hasn’t spoken to Bahçeli in about four years, but he’s long been known for being able to “decode” Bahçeli’s political moves and messages. Thanks to his background in nationalist politics and his experience in state institutions, he claims he still sees things from Bahçeli’s point of view.

And here’s what he has to say about the possibility of early elections and İmamoğlu’s future, in an interview.

“The economy would breathe the moment early elections are announced”

Q: So, to wrap it up, you think Erdoğan will insist on running in the next election, but he won’t make it all the way to the end of 2027.

TÜRKÖNE: Exactly. I think he has no choice. Given the current situation, he can’t hold on that long. The main factor here is the economy — we didn’t go into detail, but it drives everything in politics. There are no exceptions. If Turkey announces early elections, the economy would immediately ease up. That’s a known fact. Credit risk (CDS) would go down, interest rates would drop, and people would start to believe inflation might actually fall — that belief alone would help bring it down a bit. Right now, the government has become a huge burden on the economy. That’s the real reason why early elections are looking inevitable.

“İmamoğlu will remain CHP’s real leader no matter what – remember how Erdoğan entered Parliament in 2003?”

Türköne also makes an interesting point: if there’s going to be a new peace or “solution” process (possibly with the Kurds), İmamoğlu has to be free. You can’t run a serious peace process while a high-profile presidential hopeful like him is in jail. It would just look completely undemocratic.

Q: But İmamoğlu’s not just in jail — his diploma was revoked too. Even if he’s released, he still can’t run for president right now.

TÜRKÖNE: Well, think back to 2003 — Erdoğan wasn’t eligible either, and they found a way. I honestly believe the CHP is in such a strong position right now that they could run a chair and still win. So for İmamoğlu, maybe they’ll go with a placeholder candidate or reframe the system as part of a transition back to a parliamentary model. Either way, they’ll find a solution.

İmamoğlu might not become president right away, but he’ll definitely stay at the center of CHP. He’ll be the real leader of the party, whatever happens.

Above content is an excerpt translated and edited from an article based on interview with Mümtaz’er TÜRKÖNE. Interview was made by Cansu Çamlıbel (from T24.com.tr – [email protected]) Original Source in Turkish: t24.com.tr/yazarlar/cansu-camlibel/mumtaz-er-turkone-erdogan-cozum-surecini-tirpanlayacak-bahceli-de-bunun-uzerine-erken-secime-goturecek-cunku-hukuka-donmeden-surecin-basari-sansi-yok,49556