The Agenda will be hot in Turkey in October due to economic data to be announced

September has already gone by and we are about to enter October (2019). Apparently Turkey will go through a hot period again as far as economic performance is concerned and markets have turned their eyes to data such as inflation figures, unemployment data, export figures, Turkey Central Bank’s decisions, YEP, and the budget to be announced by authorities.

Obviously the New Economy Program (YEP) and the central government budget of 2020 will be at the top of the agenda. Treasury and Finance Minister ALBAYRAK is expected to announce the YEP which is the roadmap of Turkey’s economy, for the next 3 years.

The YEP will cover basic macro indicators such as inflation, employment, growth, exports and current account deficit for the period of 2020-2022. The plan, which is prepared in line with the requirements of general economic conditions, will include macro policies, principles and targets as well as basic economic variables. The program, which will increase predictability for the private sector, will contribute to the confidence and stability, by sustaining the social and economic developments achieved in recent years, on a more solid basis.

With the announcement of YEP, the process regarding the central government budget of 2020 will be brought to a certain point. The objectives and priorities of the program will be taken as basis in the preparation of the ministries and institutions’ budgets.

The Medium Term Fiscal Plan, which includes points such as revenue and spending forecast for  3 years and target deficit and borrowing situation will also be published in the Official Gazette.

After the program and the financial plan are published, the budget call and the investment circular will also be announced in the Official Gazette in order to direct the budget proposals of the public administrations and the process of preparing the investment program.

On the other hand, preparations are underway for monitoring the effectiveness of the use of public resources and for the transition to the program budgeting system for transparency and accountability. The first step in the transition to the program budget system will be taken with the preparation of 2020 performance programs. Shift to the program-based system will be carried out with the budget of 2021.

In October, the data calendar is expected to be intense. September export figures will be announced by Minister of Commerce Ruhsar Pekcan, on October 3. Markets will focus on inflation figures on the same day. On the other hand, unemployment figures and budget realization results for September will be announced on 15 October.

Thereafter, the eyes will be turned to the meeting of the Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee (PPK), which cut interest rates in the last two meetings. The PPK will meet on October 24 and announce the interest rate decision. Central Bank Governor Murat Uysal will announce the latest Inflation Report of the year on October 31st.