2023 election in Turkey: Can the presidential run be concluded in the first round?

April 29, 2023 BTT

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As Turkey approaches May 14th, the excitement in the country seems to be sky-rocketing. The most important questions are whether Erdogan will lose his chair after 21 years of firm grip in power and if the presidential election can be concluded in the first round. Based on the current picture right now, KILICDAROGLU seems to be leading with 49 to 44 ahead of Erdogan based on average of multiple poll results by rather reliable (and reputable) survey companies. However, it is essential to obtain vote share of over 50 percent to win the election in the first round.

So far, Muharrem INCE, a former CHP deputy and an opponent to Erdogan in last election and Sinan OGAN running for ATA Alliance seem to have stolen votes from KILICDAROGLU, candidate of Nation Alliance (main opposition bloc) supported by left parties (with approximately 10-12 percent vote share) as well, standing in the way to an opposition victory as early as in the first round. Regarding the issue Mehmet S. PÖSTEKİ, General Manager of ORC Survey Company has shared a very important message inserted in below content.

CAN THE PRESIDENTIAL RUN BE CONCLUDED IN THE FIRST ROUND?
(content by Mehmet Pösteki, on Twitter)

Meeting of large families on Eid al-Fitr (Ramadan Holiday), seems to have caused a decrease in the votes of Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan (other / alternative presidential candidates) who are supposed to get votes from opposition mainly. According to the research we conducted before the holiday, we observe serious decreases in the votes of these two names.

PRESSURE FROM FAMILIES TO USE VOTES IN A WAY NOT TO WASTE THEM

There must have been serious “neighborhood pressure” (coming from family members) as we call it at large family meetings that the votes to be given to these two names would be wasted and that the election should not go to the second round. So much so that after the holiday, both Kemal KILICDAROGLU and Erdogan seem to increase their votes, while both Ince and Ogan seem to have lost votes.

PERSUASION CONVERSATIONS DURING RAMADAN BAYRAM

Although Ince and Ogan receive votes from both sides, they are giving the main damage to the opposition because KILICDAROGLU is the side that is close to the 50% limit. For this reason, the “persuasion speeches” during Bayram seem to have worked for KILICDAROGLU. Every day the probability of the election ending in the first round increases.

STRONG SUPPORT FROM AKSENER, GOOD PARTY LEADER IN MEETINGS

Another issue that made it easier for the election to end in the first round was that Meral Akşener, Good Party leader and Nation Alliance’s strong partner wanted vote for KILICDAROGLU with full support, on the field.

THIRD ALTERNATIVE LOSING VOTES?

The main target audience of both INCE and OGAN who appeared as “Third Alternative”, was Good Party voters who were “dissatisfied with KILICDAROGLU candidacy”. We now see that Akşener has started to convince said supporters (of Good Party) that had moved away from her party. The fact that the Good Party is very close to its vote rate before March 6 again, verifies this observation.