Research and reasoning says Erdogan may lose this time

As 2023 presidential and deputy election approaches Turkey has entered a real hot atmosphere with two major blocs targeting to rule the country; Republic Alliance headed by AK Party and Tayyip Erdogan and Nation Alliance headed by Kemal KILICDAROGLU, leader of main opposition CHP.

Citizens regardless of which group they support would all like to have a better future in this country. Looking at the latest developments and opinions shared by opinion leaders and experts we can see a most recent picture painted in below article.

SUCCESSFUL ACHIEVEMENT OF AK PARTY AND ERDOGAN AT THE EARLY STAGE

In 2016 Erdogan had achieved important accomplishments in Turkey such as overcoming a coup attempt and carrying out important military operations in Syria. In 2017, the constitutional amendment was made and he won the April 16 referendum. US dollar TL rate was around 4 TL and issues such as inflation, cost of living, unemployment in the country were not like they are today. Also Turkey did not have the Syrian migrant issue which has been one of the major headaches for the country for quite a while. Even at that time and under such favorable conditions as compared to those today, Erdogan only managed to get 51.5% of the vote, in the 2018 election.

WHY HAVE THINGS CHANGED IN FAVOR OF OPPOSITION?

Apparently after that election much seems to have changed against his favor, telling us he would be able get a maximum of 23 million votes corresponding to a rate of 43 percent, only. Obviously, there are more reasons inserted below painting us this negative picture for the ruling power.

CORRUPTION, PRACTICES IN JUSTICE AND LACK OF MERIT ISSUES

AK Party, that is especially those in management and some others benefitting (in some way like via jobs, tenders etc.) for supporting the party have become rich, which is observed and followed by millions of citizens in need – certainly to include millions voting for AK Party. Tender scandals, corruption, mafia and bureaucrat/politician relations have started to hit the ceiling. Lack of merit, lack of justice, bad and unfair unlawful practices have peaked.

PERFORMANCE AFTER EARTHQUAKE IN KAHRAMANMARAS

On top of it all, the incompetence of the ruling AK Party government seen especially during the earthquake and the following days have topped off, putting the ruling power in further difficulty.

ALTERNATIVE RIGHT-WING PARTIES

In the past, the AK Party used to be almost the only alternative for right-wing and conservative voters. Now there are parties in the Nation Alliance as alternative to AK Party, demanding support from right-wing voters. To make things even worse, the AK Party has made a major mistake by including the extreme Islamist Huda-Par (said to have past links to Hizbollah which a majority of general electorate remembers with dislike and even fear).

EXHAUSTED / TIRED ADMINISTRATION

Finally, it would be appropriate to add that the current administration (as well as Erdogan) has been giving an extremely tired picture in the eyes of the electorate. On the other hand, KILIÇDAROĞLU the leader of main opposition CHP patiently and stubbornly formed and developed the opposition bloc under the name, National Alliance. The important part is he seems to have carried his successful and positive performance to the rally squares as well. It is noteworthy to say AK Party and Erdogan seem to have no genuine promises left to make, regarding their future performance to carry Turkey to a modern and social environment and an acceptable level of prosperity.  

HARM CAUSED BY UNREAL AND OFFENSIVE RHETORIC AND STATEMENTS

For this reason, the members, supporters as well as top politicians of the ruling bloc to include Erdoğan as well take every opportunity to attack and defame and insult Alliance of the Nation and KILICDAROGLU using unfair and unreal rhetoric. However, this very negative and harmful strategy (if it may be so called) does not serve the Republic Alliance well, reducing their vote share only.

CHANCES OF NATION ALLIANCE’S CANDIDATE TO WIN IN FIRST ROUND

For all above mentioned reasons, it looks extremely difficult for Erdogan to win against KILICDAROGLU. It seems that even if the CHP leader cannot win in the first round (due to other candidates splitting votes such as INCE), he will emerge victorious from this race in the second round.

Turkey seems to be on the verge of a new horizon with much  to expect in terms of wealth, happiness and stability.