Can the Balıkesir Earthquake Trigger One in İzmir? Expert’s Answer: It May Transfer Stress to Nearby Faults

Expert Explains the Connection Between Balıkesir and İzmir Fault Lines

After the 6.1 magnitude earthquake struck Balıkesir’s Sındırgı district, many residents wondered whether it could trigger another quake in İzmir. According to Koray Çetin Önalan, the Chair of the İzmir Branch of the Chamber of Geological Engineers (JMO), this is not possible.

He explained that while the tremor might transfer stress to nearby fault lines around Balıkesir, it does not have the capacity to directly affect İzmir’s seismic system. “The faults in İzmir are already capable of producing an earthquake at any time,” he said. “The earthquake threat in İzmir remains exactly the same as it was before this event.”

Details of the Sındırgı Earthquake

The Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) reported that the quake occurred at 22:48, at a depth of nearly 6 kilometers. The tremor was felt across many provinces in the Marmara and Aegean regions, followed by a series of aftershocks, the largest reaching magnitude 4.4.

This event came after another 6.1 magnitude earthquake in the same region on August 10, which caused one fatality and triggered a prolonged sequence of smaller quakes.

 “The Fault Lines in İzmir Are Ready to Move”

According to Önalan, the Sındırgı earthquake occurred on the Simav Fault’s Sındırgı segment, a strike-slip fault with a vertical component, indicating about 10 kilometers of fault rupture.

He warned that damaged or weakened structures could collapse even in similar-scale aftershocks, noting, “Aftershocks of up to magnitude 5.1 are normal following such a quake.”

Regarding İzmir, he stated: “Three major faults — Tuzla, Gülbahçe, and Seferihisar — have reached their seismic time limits. These faults are in a locked state, storing energy that can be released at any moment. The earthquake risk for İzmir today is exactly what it was yesterday.”

İzmir’s Urgent Need for Earthquake Preparedness

Önalan also pointed out a broader concern: around 600,000 buildings in İzmir are considered at risk in the event of an earthquake. He emphasized the need for urgent urban transformation and scientific groundwork.

“There is a serious settlement problem in Turkey and İzmir,” he said. “The most severe damage occurs in wetland and low-lying areas, where the groundwater level is high. We saw this clearly during the October 30, 2020 earthquake, when we lost 117 lives and suffered $20 billion in economic losses.”

He stressed that municipalities must prioritize microzoning, geological, and geotechnical studies, and build new housing only in safe areas. In addition, he urged the preparation of comprehensive emergency response plans.

“We don’t know when the next earthquake will happen,” Önalan concluded, “but we know it will happen. That’s why İzmir must be prepared.”

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