Chances of two rival political blocs in Turkey as 2023 election approaches
As 2023 deputy and presidential election approaches, the political atmosphere in Turkey keeps getting tougher. There are many reasons to say the country has not been doing well recently, in terms of both politics and economy. But, how are the chances of two rival political blocs that is the ruling Republic Bloc and the opposing Nation’s Bloc, to see a victory in said elections.
The Republic Alliance consists of 2 parties mainly, that is ruing AK Party and its partner MHP (National Movement Party). The opposing alliance also called the Nation’s Alliance consists of main opposition CHP, partner Good Party and Refah (Welfare) Party. Today, the Nation’s alliance has grown into a 6 party opposition bloc under the name of “6 party table” with 3 more newcomers that is Deva Party, Gelecek Partisi and Demokrat Party with potential vote share of approximately 5 percent. On the other hand, we also see another party namely HDP (Peoples’ Democratic Party) a pro-Kurdish establishment, also opposing the ruling bloc.
VOTE SHARES OF POLITICAL OPPONENTS AS OFF TODAY
Judging on the great majority of polls conducted by survey companies, average and approximate vote shares of 2 rival blocs and the opposition group in total seem to be as follows, as off today.
Republic Alliance: 40 percent
Nation’s Alliance: 40-45 percent
HDP: 8-10 percent
STEPS ADMINISTRATION WILL TAKE PRIOR TO ELECTIONS
It could be said that these figures tell us a win in said elections for the ruling bloc and current president of Turkey seem to be at stake. It could certainly be considered as concerning picture for the administration running Turkey today. Indeed, the current president being aware of this not very promising situation seems to be determined to take radical and straight to the point steps such as practicing major hikes in minimum wages, as well as increases in pension payments and also making access to loans much easier etc. prior to elections.
WHAT MORE COULD ADMINISTRATION DO FOR A WIN IN ELECTION?
The question is would all these cosmetic measures help to get back all the votes lost due to insufficient administration during the last ten years or so, in particular. Most likely even the administration is aware, they would not and that much more would need to be done.
Therefore, the leader tries every other possible alternative such as attempting to rebuild bridges with the Kurdish bloc with likely vote potential of 10 percent or persuading Good Party (of opposition) to abandon the six party table to weaken the opposition bloc etc. However none of these attempts seem likely to pay off and the leader would still need other remedies to ensure he does not see a likely defeat in the election.
One can see he tends to promote his successful performance he seems to have enjoyed in international relations arena recently, such as mediating grain corridor agreement between Russia and Ukraine and handling of the issue on usage of Bosphorus by foreign war ships during the Ukraine war, in which situation one can see a raise in his vote share, but not good enough to secure a dominance over the opposition.
Furthermore the leader may even be trying to resort to the support one could say Russia (Putin) has not been denying recently, due to improving relations between 2 leaders and use it as an element of global prestige to promote his popularity, in the country.
WOULD ALL THESE EFFORTS ENSURE A DEFINITE WIN FOR RULING GROUP?
All these and more we cannot think of at the moment, to be practiced in near future may still not be good enough to ensure a victory in the election. Thus, it would best to say “time will tell who will be the winner”. However one thing could be said for sure; It is going to be a very tough challenge and a vital one for both rivals blocs. A challenge that will have a major say in the next 100 years of Turkey as it is worded by many experts and opinion leaders.
