Demographic trends and future of the Turkish market

The increase in the number of households will help sustain growing consumption

Although the rate of population growth is slowing down, the economy is not expected to suffer demand problems as the number of of household that is directly related to the consumption and demand level is recorded to be increasing faster.

This increase creates a significant additional demand for houses, cars, durable goods, household electronics and furniture.

Money spent for kids expected to increase

Due to the demographic reasons the number of children is expected to remain steady while adults will increase in number which will make youngsters at home the attraction point for the entrepreneurs. The income of the families whic was divided among four or five children is expected be shared by two children in the near future.

When more money is spent for food, health and education for each child, Turkey will have a healthier and better educated generation. Education expenses will also rise in parallel to the quality of education.

Younger generations tend to spend more money on consumption

The first generation of the Turkish Republic devoted their lives to their children. But today’s young generation has a strong tendency to make the best of today. As the financial capabilities of these citizens with a focus on spending (rather saving savings) is forecasted to increase, the consumption expenditures are expected to go up in a consistent manner, as well.

The increase in computer literacy and common usage of mobile communication equipment are expected to have a strong impact on the consumption economy and even skyrocket within the next 5-15 years.

Growing elderly population will create new business opportunities

The rate of the elderly population is forecaasted to rise but only to reach 10 percent even in 2030  and get near the rates in EU around 2050.

Slow but steady increase in elderly population would lead to a growth in private pension systems. Thus, health services and expenditures are expected to rise for the eldery people, as well.

Increase in the number of working women

The rate of  women within working life has been increasing in parallel to the services sector. Due to the improvement in the average period of education girls in the society are provided with and consequent increase in marriage age and the the fall in fertility figures, female employment in services sector such as banking, insurance, IT, consulting and trade is observed to grow fairly faster than the employment figures of men in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing.

Thus the rise in the income of working women will cceertainly generate an increase in consumption in general but particulary in spendings for clothing and personal care.

Distribution of consumer spendings will change

Currently, food has in a share of about 30 percent in household spendings. Due to the rise in in incomes as a result of the growth in the economy and the diversification of requirements, said rate can go down to as low as 18 percent in 2025 and 23 percent in 2015.

The share of the money spent on clothes within the household budget is also on the decrease. The housing expenses are expected to go up in parallel to increased revenues.

People will spend more on consumer electronics (which is oviously the case, even now) but communication expenses will go down.

In parallel to flexible and reduced working hours expenditures on leisure, holiday and hobby activities are also supposed to rise.

30.03.2012
compiled by Editor, BTT