Economy in Turkey: Stock Market Cheers Delay Decision in Istanbul
Calm Start Turns Into Rally After Court Case Postponement
Markets began the week on a quiet note, with all eyes on the Republican People’s Party (CHP) congress annulment lawsuit. Once news broke that the case was postponed without precautionary measures, Istanbul’s stock market turned sharply positive. The BIST100 index jumped more than 4 percent, while the banking index surged over 6 percent. Analysts weighed in on the developments and shared their expectations.
Why the Court Decision Mattered
The long-awaited hearing started at 10:00, only to be postponed to October 24 at the same hour. The “no precautionary” decision instantly boosted investor sentiment. As a result, the BIST100 index gained more than 4 percent and bank stocks soared past 6 percent in intraday trading.
At 12:28, the BIST100 index was up 4.61 percent at 10,849 points, while the banking index rose 6.11 percent. Meanwhile, USD/TRY slipped slightly by 0.08 percent to 41.32, and EUR/TRY edged higher by 0.05 percent to 48.59.
Background: Previous Market Volatility
Back in late June, a previous postponement had lifted sentiment, but on September 2 the annulment of CHP’s Istanbul provincial congress reversed the mood. In just two weeks, the Borsa Istanbul shed about 8 percent, while Turkish lira bonds saw heavy action. Thanks to the Central Bank’s intervention, exchange rates stayed relatively stable. With the latest ruling, attention now shifts firmly to October 24.
Expert View: Demand-Driven Weeks Ahead
Eral Karayazıcı, Fund Management Director at Inveo Portfolio, commented that although the decision does not clear away political uncertainty, it offers short-term breathing space. He expects demand to remain strong over the next four weeks, with the market possibly testing the 283-dollar level (around 11,700 points at current rates).
He underlined that 257 dollars (10,600 points) has become a key support level, while 250 dollars represents a much stronger support unlikely to be broken under normal conditions.
Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Caution
This week’s most critical agenda item, the CHP congress lawsuit, ended with a deferral in line with expectations. The absence of a trustee appointment to CHP’s Istanbul branch, which markets had feared, was met with strong relief. The index’s jump of over 4 percent reflects this.
Still, the trial has not been concluded, and October 24 remains a key date. Until then, the stock market is likely to enjoy a more positive atmosphere. However, as that date approaches, sentiment will once again hinge on political developments.
From a technical perspective, after the sharp rally, the market has reached its downward trendline from the 11,605 peak, which now crosses around 10,815. Breaking this resistance is essential for further upside. If successful, the path could open toward 11,100–11,320. On the downside, intraday strategy should focus on 10,700 support, with hourly closes below it signaling caution.
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