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Election in Turkey: Political scientist says KILICDAROGLU may win in first round

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BEKIR AGIRDIR OPINION LEADER POLITICS TURKEY

Political Scientist Bekir AGIRDIR has made a statement saying “I expect Muharrem Ince’s votes to go down to 3-4 percent and Sinan OGAN’s votes may go down to 1-2 in the polls. If this decline occurs, KILICDAROGLU’s win rate in the first round is higher than EDROGAN’s.”

Political scientist AGIRDIR made an assessment days before the May 14 elections. He said President Tayyip Erdogan was very unlikely to win in the first round, while the second round was more likely to be won by the Nation Alliance’s candidate Kemal KILICDAROGLU. He stated that he expected a decline in the votes of Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan, adding if this happened KILICDAROGLU could win the presidential elections in the first round.

Speaking to media, AGIRDIR made the following comment:

‘THE MAXIMUM REACH OF RULING POWER IS 45 PERCENT’

“It seems difficult for ERDOGAN to win in the first round. From time to time, it is said that the government has lost nothing, it is also talked about a lot in public, “Does the vote of the government never decrease?” Well, it does. It has been decreasing by 3-5 points in every election since 2015. Especially if we look at the AK Party-MHP total, what appears today is that it is possible to say that the maximum potential they can reach is about 45 percent for now.

“WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THE YOUNG PEOPLE WHO SUPPORT INCE TARGET”’

But can KILICDAROGLU win? The critical question there is the votes Muharrem Ince and Sinan Ogan will get. Because they receive a share from 58-60 percent opposition votes, as well. The votes that Muharrem Ince receives are from the opposition voter group. Five out of 10 people who voted for Muharrem Ince are young voters who will vote for the first time. However, these young voters are not going to vote knowing about Ince’s claims or the Memleket Party’s (Ince’s party) program. They support him by looking at what Muharrem Ince is against. We don’t know what these young people support (target), but we know what they are against.

I expect Muharrem Ince’s votes to go down to 3-4 percent and Sinan Bey’s to 1-2 in the polls. If this setback occurs, KILICDAROGLU’s chances of winning first-round will be higher than ERDOGAN’s.”

Editor’s Note: BEKIR AGIRDIR is an experienced and reputable political analyst and opinion leader often invited to TV programs, for his unique evaluations and opinions.

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