How Did Damascus Fall So Quickly and What Is Next in Syria?
A dramatic turning point has occurred in the Syrian civil war on November 27 when opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a major offensive toward Syria’s capital, Damascus. By December 7, these groups had successfully entered the city, delivering a heavy blow to the Assad regime. The people of Damascus greeted the opposition with celebrations, while Bashar al-Assad and his family fled to Russia, where they were granted asylum.
Main Factors Behind the Sudden Collapse of Damascus
Weakening of Assad’s Military Power & Diminishing Influence of Key Allies
Opinion leaders note that Assad’s military has been significantly weakened over the years due to heavy losses during the prolonged conflict in Syria. On top of this fact, Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, Assad’s main allies, have become distracted by their own internal issues, leading to a reduced level of support for the Syrian government.
Russia’s involvement in the war in Ukraine has reduced its ability to maintain its military presence in Syria. Meanwhile, Hezbollah, supported by Iran, suffered significant losses due to Israeli airstrikes, with several high-ranking Iranian commanders killed. These setbacks contributed to the weakening of the Syrian regime’s military strength.
Low Morale and Desertion Among Soldiers
In several areas, Assad’s troops displayed low morale and reluctance to continue fighting. Many soldiers reportedly chose not to engage in combat, further diminishing Assad’s defensive capabilities and making it easier for the opposition to advance toward the capital.
HTS’s Momentum and Growing Popular Support
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group with historical ties to al-Qaeda, gained control over strategic cities such as Aleppo, Idlib, Hama, and Homs. By December 7, they had reached Damascus, bolstered by popular support from the population. As the opposition entered the city, celebrations erupted, with crowds cheering and firing weapons into the air, signaling the fall of the Assad regime.
Assad’s Exile and the Uncertain Future of Syria
Despite its violent history and al-Qaeda ties, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Julani has advocated for a more pluralistic and democratic future for Syria. Some observers see this as a potential step towards a democratic system. However, HTS’s record of violence and human rights abuses raises doubts about their ability to follow through on these promises and create a fair and just society
The future of Syria’s non-Sunni Muslim minorities, such as Christians and Alawites, remains a significant concern. HTS’s radical past and extremist ideology may pose a serious threat to the safety and rights of these minority groups in a post-Assad Syria
While celebrations are underway in Damascus, the country’s future is shrouded in uncertainty. A resident of Damascus, speaking to the BBC, described the atmosphere as reminiscent of the early days of the 2011 revolution, with people feeling a renewed sense of freedom and hope. However, the path forward remains unclear, with critical questions about how power will transition and what kind of government HTS will establish. Syria could face a chaotic future, similar to Libya, with armed groups clashing and the country descending into further instability.Bashar al-Assad’s departure to Moscow marks the end of the Ba’ath Party’s 61-year rule in Syria. While security in Damascus is reportedly under control, Hadi al-Bahra, the leader of the Syrian National Coalition, has called for calm among all religious and sectarian groups, assuring that there will be no reprisals or human rights violations. Despite this, the future of Syria remains uncertain, and international actors are still grappling with how to manage the transition process.
