It seems like a cross-border operation into Iraq is quite likely
The diplomatic traffic Turkey has been conducting with Iraq in the past few months is noteworthy. Just before the new-year, both Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Defense Minister Yaşar Güler separately visited Iraq. In December, their Iraqi counterparts visited Ankara as a reciprocal gesture.
In January, the head of the National Intelligence Organization (MİT), Kalın, visited both Baghdad and Northern Iraq for talks. Two weeks ago, the Iraqi Foreign Minister visited Turkey to attend the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. Last week, Fidan, Güler, and Kalın together visited Baghdad again.
Another less noticeable visit was the trip of the commander of the Second Army, Lieutenant General Metin Tokel, to the other side of the Iraqi border last week to meet with counterparts there.
ECONOMIC “CARROT” FOR BAGHDAD
Previous contacts with Iraq have shown that Baghdad was not very receptive when only the fight against the PKK terrorist organization was on the table. Therefore, Turkey is approaching Iraq this time with an “economic carrot”; Ankara is fully supporting the “Development Road project,” which is Prime Minister Sudani’s project starting from Basra and consisting of road and railway lines to Turkey.
However, Ankara’s condition for such support is that such a significant project should not be “under threat of terrorism.” In short, the trio of Fidan-Güler-Kalın carries President Erdoğan’s beloved principle of “win-win” in their briefcases.
“GREEN LIGHT” IN U.S. STATEMENTS
When it comes to the PKK terrorist group and Iraq, one cannot ignore the United States, which ended the Saddam era and established the current administrative system in Iraq. Regarding the PKK, the positions of Iraq and Syria are different for the U.S.; the U.S. officially designates PKK elements stationed in Iraq as a “terrorist organization.” However, there is not the same approach in Washington regarding the PKK terrorist organization’s extension PYD-YPG in Syria. PYD-YPG is seen by Washington not as a terrorist organization but as an “ally force” trained and equipped by American officers and fought together against ISIS elements in Syria.
Ankara interprets statements from American officials within the framework of strategic mechanism talks regarding “non-Russian sourced oil and natural gas, and Turkey’s critical transit route to Europe” as a “green light” for an operation against the PKK in Iraq. As you know, the pipelines transporting Iraqi oil and natural gas to the Mediterranean have been out of use for a long time. This is due not only to disagreements between Ankara and Baghdad but also to the significant impact of terrorist organizations occasionally sabotaging the pipelines.
Turkey is determined to eliminate PKK elements in Iraq, preferably in coordination with the Iraqi government. The decision of the Iraqi Security Council to “ban” the PKK at this stage is also significant. The roadmap is clear. What is unclear, however, is whether the operation will take place before or after the local elections on March 31. The timing will likely be determined based on the results of opinion polls, especially in major cities such as Istanbul…
Original article (in Turkish) : Zeynep Gürcanlı / ekonomim.com
Translated by BTT
