Markets Expect 250 Basis Point Rate Cut from the Central Bank
Central Bank to Announce July Rate Decision on July 24 at 2:00 PM
The Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) is scheduled to announce its July interest rate decision on Thursday, July 24, 2025, at 2:00 PM (local time). All eyes are on the policy committee as markets expect a 250 basis point cut, potentially lowering the one-week repo rate to 43.5 percent. The outcome will be closely watched for signals on the Central Bank’s monetary policy direction heading into the second half of the year.
What is the forecast?
Markets are anticipating a significant interest rate cut from the Central Bank of Turkey at its upcoming policy meeting. According to Bloomberg HT’s latest survey, the median expectation among 20 institutions is a 250 basis point reduction in the one-week repo rate, bringing it down to 43.5 percent. This move is widely expected at the July 24 monetary policy committee meeting.
Forecasts Range Widely
Expectations vary, with the lowest forecast for the weekly repo rate at 42.5 percent and the highest at 46 percent. The overnight lending rate is also expected to drop from 49 percent to 46 percent, based on the median projection. Some institutions even expect a further cut down to 43 percent, while others see no change.
Year-End Rate Expectations Shift Upward
Looking ahead, the year-end policy rate expectation has inched up to 36 percent, slightly higher than the 35 percent forecast in the previous survey. This reflects a cautious optimism that monetary easing will continue, though at a measured pace. The range of forecasts shows some institutions expecting rates to end the year as low as 35 percent, while others anticipate a more modest drop to 37.5 percent.
June Meeting Left Rates Unchanged
At its June meeting, the Central Bank left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 46 percent, maintaining the overnight lending rate at 49 percent. The next scheduled policy meeting is set for September 11, which means July’s decision could set the tone for the rest of the summer.
