Opinion: “Why the Turkish Economy Hasn’t Collapsed” (By Şeref Oğuz October 31, 2025)

Why Hasn’t the Economy Collapsed? Turkish economist Şeref Oğuz explains why Turkey’s economy hasn’t collapsed despite long-standing crises, inflation, and structural decay — revealing how political control, unequal pain distribution, and “managed stagnation” keep the system alive but weak.

“An economy collapses only when a major crisis hits — that means four to five quarters of contraction. During such a period, companies fail, banks crumble, bankruptcies surge, unemployment skyrockets, and public finances collapse. Political consequences follow too, with governments changing completely, just like during the 2001 crisis.

In the history of the Republic, there have been two major economic crises. The first came after the struggles of the 1940s — the post-war era and the transition to multi-party democracy — which set the stage for the 1950s turmoil. The founding CHP lost power, the Democrat Party took over, and economic imbalances triggered another breakdown that ultimately led to the 1960 military coup.

Where Are We Mistaken?

Now, let’s look at today. The data shows something like a chronic disease — irreversible economic damage, like COPD (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease) — yet no one is collapsing. Why?

My strategist son asked me this: “Dad, you said last year this economy would crash. You repeated that prediction early this year. Why are you always wrong?”

He was right to ask. I kept turning the question in my mind. The answer became clear: First of all, part of the public isn’t sinking at all — on the contrary, they’re thriving — public employees, cronies, those close to power and money. Meanwhile, the working class, farmers, and industrialists are barely staying afloat. This doesn’t crash the economy, but it drags it painfully forward.

Two Questions, Two Answers — About the Non-Crashing Crisis

What prevents the crash?
We’re like frogs in warm water, slowly boiled without frogs realizing it. The administration controls all institutions. Collapsing is legally forbidden. Sectors standing at the edge of the cliff are being kept alive through artificial support — like patients on an economic IV drip.

How long can this go on?
Until everyone starts losing at once. When no one can transfer their losses to someone else, when politics runs out of energy to keep the economy limping forward — that’s when the inevitable will come. In short, not yet.

 “It Was Like Death, But No One Died”

Poet Özdemir Asaf beautifully captured this “undying decay”:
“I didn’t love someone / She didn’t love me / We agreed to meet somewhere / She didn’t come, I didn’t go / It was like death, but no one died.”

There’s no real crisis — just decay. My argument that “there’s no crisis, but there’s decay” already describes this situation — one that doesn’t kill but makes you suffer and crawl.”

“Glossary of the Crisis That Never Comes“

Decay: When work ethics vanish, corruption spreads, and everyone feeds off each other.
Inflation-Beneficiary: Those who profit from soaring prices — cronies and political insiders.
Inflation-Victim: Those whose purchasing power collapses — the rest of us, the non-connected majority.
Income Distribution: How national wealth is shared — the sacrifices belong to us, the rewards to those in power.

Mr. ŞEREF OĞUZ is a Turkish economist and “prominent” journalist / columnist known for his sharp economic commentary. He has worked in major newspapers such as Sabah, Tercüman, Günaydın, Meydan and Milliyet, holding senior editorial and economic director positions over the years. He currently serves as Chairman of the Board of Ekonomi Gazetesi and writes columns published on ekonomim.com. His articles often focus on inflation, government spending, fiscal discipline, and structural issues in the Turkish economy. Oğuz is widely followed in economic and business circles for his direct, sometimes critical tone toward economic policies.

Keywords: #economy #Turkey #crisis #inflation #corruption #inequality #finance #politics #collapse #recession #growth #publicsector #power #decay #inflationvictim #stagnation #control #governance #wealthgap #unemployment