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TUIK to announce inflation data on August 3: What do economists forecast?

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The Turkish Statistical Institute announces inflation data on the 3rd of every month. The inflation rates for July will also be announced on August 3. Here are the inflation forecasts from economists…

Eyes are turned to the TURKSTAT for the inflation figures for July. The 6-month inflation figures, which are decisive for the increase of civil servants and pensioners, were announced as 19.77 percent. For the consumer and producer inflation of the seventh month of 2023, the Turkish Statistical Institute is expected to share an announcement on August 3.

WHAT IS THE DIRECTION OF INFLATION EXPECTATION?

According to a survey conducted with the participation of 17 economists, the average inflation expectations of economists for July became 9.07 percent. July inflation expectations of the economists surveyed were in the lowest range of 7.50 percent and the highest range of 10.60 percent.

According to the average of economists’ inflation expectations for July (9.07 percent), it is calculated that the annual inflation rate will rise to 47.27 percent, which was 38.21 percent the previous month.

Economists’ inflation expectations for the end of 2023 increased from 42.07 percent to 61.01 percent in July. In the Reuters poll, expectations were realized in a similar way. The CPI is expected to increase by 9.1 percent monthly in July, and on an annual basis, it is expected to rise again to 47.3 percent after an eight-month decline.

The monthly CPI forecasts of 10 economists are in the band of 6.4 percent to 10.6 percent increase. Inflation estimates are between 43.50 percent and 49.40 percent, on an annual basis.

HOW MUCH WAS THE INFLATION RATE IN JUNE?

The Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) had announced the inflation data for June. Accordingly, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.92 percent in June compared to the previous month. The increase on an annual basis was 38.21 percent.

SHARP INCREASE IN THE CBRT’S INFLATION FORECAST

Hafize Gaye Erkan, the new chairperson of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), announced that the bank had made a sharp upward revision in its inflation forecasts at the end of the year in his first inflation report presentation. Erkan stated that the CBRT has increased its 2023 year-end forecast from 22.3 percent to 58 percent.

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