Turkey’s Central Bank announces dollar, interest rate and inflation forecast

In the Central Bank’s March market survey, the dollar, inflation and current account deficit expectations increased, while interest rate and growth expectations fell. The Central Bank (CBRT) has announced the results of the market participants survey in March. Accordingly, while the expectation of participants for dollar/TL at the end of 2023 was 22.84 TL in the previous survey period, it became 22.91 TL in this survey period.

The expectation of the exchange rate after 12 months was realized as TL 23.10 and TL 23.52, respectively, during the same survey periods.

INTEREST RATE EXPECTATION FALLS

While the current month-end overnight interest rate expectation of the participants in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market was 9 percent in the previous survey period, it became 8.50 percent in this survey period.

The CBRT one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for the end of the current month was realized as 8.50 percent during this survey period, while it was 9 percent during the previous survey period.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS INCREASE

While the current year-end consumer inflation (CPI) expectation of the participants was 35.76 percent in the previous survey period, it was 37.72 percent in this survey period.

While the expectation of CPI after 12 months was 30.75 percent in the previous survey period, it became 31.63 percent in this survey period. The CPI expectation after 24 months was realized as 18.11 percent and 17.91 percent, respectively, during the same survey periods.

GROWTH EXPECTATION FALLS

While the GDP growth expectation of the participants for 2023 was 3.6 in the previous survey period, it was realized as 3.5 percent in this survey period.