What is the picture awaiting Turkey as the country heads for local elections end of March 2024?
Following the victory of the ruling coalition (the current government)In the 2023 parliamentary elections, President Erdoğan appointed Mehmet Şimşek, a former minister, to head the economy. With a powerful campaign, he almost portrayed this person as a savior (almost like a magician) to cure the failing economy. Şimşek was known to be a reputable financial professional in the Western world with significant relationships.
But that was not all; as if there were no capable and competent individuals in Turkey (even though there are many), Gaye Erkan, a female executive who had received education and held high-level positions in the United States, was appointed for the position of the Central Bank Governor.
LOW INTEREST RATES RESPONSIBLE FOR INFLATION
Until these professionals were appointed to lead the financial management, the Central Bank had consistently reduced interest rates (explicitly in line with the demands openly stated by the President), which had been the biggest factor contributing to the turmoil in the Turkish economy – as expressed by many experts. People had started investing in dollars as a result of interest rate cuts, and this trend had grown to a frenzy, leading to an incredible depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar. This, undoubtedly, had caused inflation to skyrocket due to incredible price increases in everything from fuel to food.
So what has changed since these two executives came in? Has the economy improved? Has fresh foreign investment financing flown into the country? Unfortunately, despite returning to orthodox policies, i.e., the Central Bank beginning and maintaining necessary interest rate hikes, the depreciation of the Turkish lira against the dollar could not be halted due to the delay in treatment. This continued inflation further worsened the plight of the ordinary citizen.
COUNTRY’S PPROBLEM WITH ECONOMY AS WELL AS JUDICIARY AND FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION
Apart from the vital mistakes made in the economy in the past – it is clear that there was a delay in correcting these – the country’s record in areas such as the rule of law, judicial independence, and freedom of thought and expression is not seen as very positive in the western world, which also constitutes a significant obstacle to attracting foreign investment to the country. Again, this issue has been clearly voiced by many experts.
Apart from the vital mistakes made in the economy in the past – it is clear that there was a delay in correcting these – the country’s record in areas such as the rule of law, judicial independence, and freedom of thought and expression is not seen as very positive in the western world, which also constitutes a significant obstacle to attracting foreign investment to the country. Again, this issue has been clearly voiced by many experts.
On the other hand, as local elections, which are vitally important especially for the government and the current President, approach, the incredible fragmentation of the opposition has created a huge disappointment for opposition voters. Because if the current President wins Istanbul (and Ankara), which is his main target in the local elections, he will have obtained the necessary approval from the people to govern the country with even more overwhelming pressure starting from April 1, 2024, – as commented by political opinion leaders.
PROSPECTS OF EARLY DEPUTY ELECTION IN CASE OPPOSITION TRIUMPHS LOCAL ELECTIONS
Once again, it seems local elections are very likely to play an extremely important role in the fate of the country. Because, if the opposition can win Istanbul once again, then the government may face the prospect of an early election in 2025, as it will not have received the approval, sought from the people. But if not, it seems life for the Turkish people may likely be much more difficult from April 2024 onwards.
