When can we expect rapid rise of US dollar against TL to slow down?

The rise of the dollar against TL continues without a break. In the meantime, “Participants Survey” conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), the expectation for the end-of-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the current year was found to be 42.04 percent. The results of the CBRT January Market Participants Survey are as follows:

– The policy rate expectation is 45 percent.

– The participants’ expectation for the overnight interest rate at the end of the current month in the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market, which was 42.47 percent in the previous survey period, increased to 45.00 percent in this survey period. The CBRT’s one-week repo auction interest rate expectation at the end of the current month was 42.50 percent in the previous survey period, and it realized as 45.00 percent in this survey period.

END-OF-YEAR USD/TRY EXPECTATION IS 40

The participants’ expectation for the end-of-year exchange rate (USD/TRY) in this survey period was 40.00 TL. The exchange rate expectation for 12 months ahead was 39.46 TL in the previous survey period, and it realized as 40.64 TL in this survey period.

– End-of-year growth expectation is 3.4 percent.

– The participants’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth expectation for the year 2024, which was 3.3 percent in the previous survey period, increased to 3.4 percent in this survey period. The GDP growth expectation for the year 2025 in this survey period is realized as 3.9 percent.

The January 2024 Market Participants Survey was answered by 68 participants consisting of representatives from the real sector and the financial sector, and the results were evaluated by aggregating the participants’ responses.

Editor’s note: The answer to the question in title would be (supposedly); “Doesn’t look like in close future…” (unluckily)