Will Ak Party face significant loss due to clashes with the community?
Not long ago, did Turkey go through some major protests against the ruling AK party, on which occasion the eyes of the world were focused on Turkey due to alleged violations of democracy.
The police used some excessive force to include abundant gas and water cannons and thousands of protestors were wounded and several lost their lives. These incidents are believed to have cost AK Party some considerable support in the eyes of the public.
On the other hand , local elections are scheduled for March 2014 and the GEZI protests as referred above, has shown how strong the resentment against the AKP government is. At this point it is difficult to say that the community’s voting block is not precious for the government as they would need every single vote on their continuing march to 2023.
Then again, when we consider the voting base of the community does not have a political alternative to vote for it is difficult to say AKP would lose those votes very easily. The reason is we are not in the situation to refer another Islamic party that could stand as an alternative to AKP.
On the other hand Turkish PM has managed to master pumping fear into pious Muslim hearts that if AKP loses power, they might not be able to maintain their religious rights under another other political regime or the ruling of his rivals.
Another point is AKP has made significant concessions to the community and if it did not have to do this it could further gain other votes, to replace those community votes to be possibly lost.
When we look at the attitude the PM has displayed so far, we see Erdoğan is most likely to scale down privileges he has provided the community with so far, but not close down the tutoring halls.
On the other hand, some names of individuals in the Gulen Movement are claimed to be on Erdogan’s blacklist for having attempted to expand their political power during the hard time AKP had to go through to control Gezi protests.
Thus it would be expected that Erdoğan may probably punish those with his usual methods such as having them fired from their jobs etc.
However, it should not be within expectations for Erdoğan to deny his government the support and influence of the community.
Then again the saddening part is how Turkish politics is run in reality in spite of the rhetoric of “advanced democracy” often pronounced by the Prime Minister.
Some argue that positions in parliament, bureaucracy and even the police force are distributed as favors by the ruling party and merit plays little role in achievement in Turkey. Many people are frightened of finding a place on the black list.
Another very discouraging point is not many people can raise hopes that the alternative (to be) CHP will eventually succeed to establish a strong enough opposition to beat AKP in elections.
02.12.2013
Editor
